NVDA
Technology · Semiconductors
233.95
+1.34% · 2026-10-02
Buy now
- Trade priority
- #2 · 68.9
- Data coverage
- 100%
- Setup
- no setup · 2026-10-02
- News
- mixed
- Next catalyst
- Earnings in 31 sessions
Trade plan
- Action
- BUY NOWvalid until close of 2026-10-05, a material event, or strategy invalidation
- Trigger
- 233.04close above resistance confirmed · close 0.4% / 0.15 ATR above the trigger
- Entry zone
- 232.75–235.70reference 233.95
- Initial stop
- 226.833.0% · risk 7.12/sh
- Target 1
- 250.48+7.1% · R:R 2.32 (acceptable)
- Target 2
- 262.30+12.1% · R:R 3.98
- Risk per share
- 7.12strategy-owned; the portfolio panel sizes it per profile
- Invalidation
- 226.83a close below 1 ATR under the level invalidates the setup before entry
Level 232.75 (resistance of the PRE_BREAKOUT on 2026-10-01); ATR14 5.91 on 2026-10-02. Stop: 1 ATR below the breakout level 232.75. Targets: ATR projections 3 / 5 ATR above the level. R:R quality acceptable to T1 (hard minimum 2.0; 3R would be 255.31, T2 supports 3.98R). Targets are structural and are never moved to reach an R multiple.
Record the fill after you enter: add position. The strategy then manages the stop, targets and the next action.
Your portfolio · San
- Profile
- Sanequity 2,000.00 USD · whole shares
- Current holding
- noneno open position in this profile
- Recommended quantity
- 1 sh233.95 · 11.7% of portfolio · bound by risk budget
- Risk budget
- 10.000.5% of 2,000.00 · planned risk 7.12
- Portfolio risk
- 0.00 openremaining 40.00 → 32.88 after
- Exposure
- 0 / 3 positionsTechnology: 0 / 2 · 0.00 of 1,000.00 cap
- Cash impact
- 2,000.00 → 1,766.05derived from the ledger
- Eligibility
- BUY NOWsame as the strategy view
Entry, stop, targets and R:R are strategy-owned and identical for every profile; only this portfolio's quantity, risk, exposure and cash differ. Manage profiles · record a fill
Quality gates
| Gate | Verdict | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Data freshness | PASS | 0 completed session(s) behind the calendar |
| Price | PASS | close 233.95 at or above the 10 floor |
| Market cap | PASS | market cap 5563.73B (finnhub, 2026-10-02) |
| Liquidity | PASS | ADV20 24631.7M (STRONG_LIQUIDITY) |
| Sector | PASS | sector Technology (finnhub_industry) |
| Regime | PASS | regime RISK_ON |
| Earnings | PASS | earnings in 31 sessions (2026-11-17) |
| News / event risk | PASS | news context MIXED |
| Chase protection | PASS | 1.53 ATR above EMA20, session move 0.52 ATR |
| R:R | PASS | reward/risk 2.32 to target 1 (acceptable), 3.98 to target 2 |
| Portfolio capacity | PASS | 1 shares (234), bound by risk budget |
| Data quality | PASS | current session data, valid technical snapshot, trigger and ATR; critical facts known |
Why this action
Technical
- breakout confirmed: close 233.95 above resistance 232.75 on 2026-10-02; entry reference is the last close (next open is the execution assumption)
- stop 226.83: 1 ATR below the breakout level 232.75
- RS20 vs SPY 2.9%, vs QQQ -2.0%
Options
- volume 4.51× the 20D baseline (activity_accelerating) · selected contracts only, delayed
News and events
- news context mixed (208 canonical items in window)
- earnings 2026-11-17 (31 sessions, finnhub); event risk low
- other · low · unknown: AMD Reaches a $1 Trillion Market Cap. Can It Finally Dethrone Nvidia?
- other · low · negative: Dow Jones Futures Loom With Nasdaq At High, Nvidia And SpaceX Buys, But Note These Risks
- other · low · unknown: What a $10,000 Investment Split Between Nvidia and Broadcom Could Be Worth by 2030
- supply chain · medium · unknown: This Under-the-Radar Supplier Could Be Nvidia's Secret Weapon
Market and risk
- regime RISK ON: SPY: trend UP, volatility NORMAL; QQQ: trend UP, volatility NORMAL
- news context mixed
Chart
2026-10-02O 236.06H 237.88L 233.60C 233.95 +1.34%Vol 135,167,818RVOL20 1.23SMA50 218.28SMA150 205.75SMA200 200.71EMA20 224.90RSI14 62.9MACD 3.489 / 2.661 / 0.827ATR14 5.91RS20 SPY 2.9% · QQQ -2.0%
Indicator history is derived from the stored bars with the accepted M3 functions (WORKSTATION_SERIES_V1); the scanner’s persisted values remain authoritative. Reconciliation at the scan session: 8 match.
Trade priority
Rank #2 · priority 68.9 / 100 · coverage 100%
- technical readiness23/30
- structure quality6/10
- relative strength8/15
- participation10/10
- risk reward8/15
- news context4/10
- event risk5/5
- urgency5/5
operational attention priority not a return forecast. Missing inputs lower coverage, never the score.
Setup evidence · PRE_BREAKOUT_V1
- Setup state
- NO_SETUP
- Resistance
- 232.75
- Distance
- -0.52%
- Close
- 233.95
- SMA50
- 218.28
- SMA150 / SMA200
- 205.75 / 200.71
- RSI14
- 62.9
- EMA20 extension
- 1.53 ATR
- RS20 vs SPY
- +2.9%
- RS20 vs QQQ
- -2.0%
Hard requirements · 6/8 passed
- PASSConfirmed resistanceresistance=232.745 exists eligible=true
- FAILDistance to resistancedistance_pct=-0.5177 · resistance=232.745 · close=233.95 inclusive_between min=0 · max=3
- PASSClose above SMA50close=233.95 · sma50=218.2782 > right_operand=sma50
- PASSSMA150 ≥ SMA200sma150=205.7458 · sma200=200.7146 >= right_operand=sma200
- PASSRSI14 bandrsi14=62.8974 inclusive_between min=50 · max=70
- FAILEMA20 extension (ATR)extension_atr=1.5315 · close=233.95 · ema20=224.8992 · atr14=5.9097 <= max=1.5
- PASSRS20 vs SPY or QQQSPY=0.0286 · QQQ=-0.0204 OR > SPY=0 · QQQ=0
- PASSResistance qualitydistinct_touches=2 policy_and_minimum_touches min=2
Supporting evidence · 3/6 passed
- PASSATR compressioncurrent_atr_pct=0.0253 · median_previous_60_atr_pct=0.0333 · ratio=0.7591 < right_operand=median_previous_60_atr_pct
- FAILVolume contractionrecent_volume=119,752,234.3309 · baseline_volume=116,067,500.4636 · ratio=1.0317 < max=0.85
- FAILHigher lowslow_1=215.1 · low_2=208.93 · low_3=221.09 low_3 > low_2 > low_1 required_pivots=3
- PASSFull MA alignmentsma50=218.2782 · sma150=205.7458 · sma200=200.7146 sma50 > sma150 > sma200
- PASSRS20 vs SPY positiveSPY=0.0286 > min=0
- FAILRS20 vs QQQ positiveQQQ=-0.0204 > min=0
PRE_BREAKOUT_V1 · scan run 415 · session 2026-10-02 · evaluated as of 2026-10-04T13:23:03.152588Z. Supporting evidence never changes the trigger; UNKNOWN is never collapsed into false.
Intelligence timeline
- 2026-10-0413:34 UTCThe market is pricing AMD as if it has become the best AI computing stock, but that's just not the case.
- 2026-10-0413:06 UTCThe Nasdaq is at highs with Nvidia, SpaceX, Bloom Energy in buy areas. But much of the market remains weak. Here's what to do.
- 2026-10-0412:45 UTCNvidia and Broadcom are two frontrunners in the AI computing race.
- 2026-10-0408:35 UTCNvidia's close relationship with SK Hynix benefits both companies.
- 2026-10-0408:20 UTCThis company is the backbone of the AI infrastructure trade.
- 2026-10-0404:50 UTCNvidia is in command of the AI arms race.
- 2026-10-0400:30 UTCAfter more than four months, Nvidia has finally gotten its act together, and the AI bull market's leading star traded at an all-time high yesterday
- 2026-10-0207:11 UTCAI infrastructure demand remains strong, but soaring costs and intensifying competition are keeping investors on edge.
- 2026-10-0205:42 UTCNvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) added $150 billion to its share repurchase authorization, the largest increase of its kind in history. That leaves $235 billion of buybacks still waiting to be executed. It puts a lot of capital behind the company’s own shares while Nvidia also pushes into a new corner of AI, keeping autonomous agents under control. […]
- 2026-10-0204:48 UTCInvesting.com-- Amazon is seeking to offload about $8 billion of advanced Nvidia chips to external investors, the Financial Times reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter.
- 2026-10-0203:20 UTCNvidia is easily the best AI stock to buy right now.
- 2026-10-0202:38 UTCA $1.6 billion chipmaker, founded only 16 years ago, beats NVIDIA in power ranking.
- 2026-10-0202:35 UTCOil is highly volatile, with focused pure-play drillers likely to benefit most from high oil prices.
- 2026-10-0200:46 UTCNvidia is the chip fund's top position. So where did the rest of the fund's gain come from?
- 2026-10-0123:55 UTCPrime Capital Financial’s Will McGough wants investors to look past NVDA’s market cap and focus on its earnings, valuation, and its role in the artificial intelligence buildout.
- 2026-10-0123:27 UTC10-year Treasury yields cooled off from the 2002 highs on Thursday.
- 2026-10-0123:01 UTCShares of global professional services company Jacobs Solutions (NYSE:J) jumped 3.3% in the afternoon session after it extended gains from the previous session as the company was selected by NVIDIA to deploy its Data Center Digital Twin platform at a large U.S. research and development facility, according to the company’s press release. The work is a three-year SaaS agreement built on NVIDIA Omniv
- 2026-10-0122:05 UTCNvidia’s updated valuation work now points to a fair value of US$327.70, up from US$302.83 in the latest analyst model. That change sits alongside research commentary that balances enthusiasm about Nvidia’s AI systems, ecosystem moves and planned Hugging Face acquisition with questions about financing structures, competition and execution risk. As you read on, you will see how to track these shift
- 2026-10-0121:59 UTCInvesting.com -- A Chinese state-backed financing entity has funded the purchase of restricted NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) processors, underscoring Beijing’s active role in facilitating access to advanced American technology despite strict export controls. The financial support signals a direct effort by local government entities to sustain China’s artificial intelligence ambitions, according
- 2026-10-0121:37 UTCFamed “The Big Short” investor Michael Burry argues that temporary hardware shortages are masking rapid GPU depreciation and creating structural risks across tech and private credit sectors.
- 2026-10-0119:35 UTCBuybacks can signal that a company's best growth days are behind it, but that isn't the case with Nvidia.
- 2026-10-0118:50 UTCNvidia has delivered a win to investors in recent years.
- 2026-10-0113:36 UTCNvidia's fresh investment could make the AI infrastructure stock CoreWeave the year's stealth winner.
- 2026-10-0113:00 UTCTransaction Expected to Establish Recurring Revenue Stream Through Long-Term GPU Lease Arrangement Company to Evaluate Strategic Alternatives for Existing Real Estate Operations to Focus on New Strategy Chairman Nicholas Adler Appointed Chief Executive Officer to Lead Strategic Transformation Celebration, FL, Oct. 01, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- La Rosa Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: LRHC) (“La Rosa” or the
- 2026-10-0112:52 UTCTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and ASML each have their own competitive bulwarks.
- 2026-10-0112:49 UTCThe acquisition adds systems-engineering talent to Nebius’s inference team and follows earlier Token Factory additions from Eigen AI and Clarifai.
- 2026-10-0112:45 UTCNvidia now guarantees financing for the AI customers buying its chips, and management openly admits some will call the arrangement circular. What happens to the stack when the weakest link cannot cover its interest bill?
- 2026-10-0112:45 UTCNvidia just unlocked nearly $100 billion in buyback firepower while demand for its chips outstrips supply through 2028, and the valuation tells a story most investors are reading backwards.
- 2026-10-0112:41 UTCCantor Fitzgerald has revealed a bullish outlook on American tech giant NVIDIA, predicting the stock can still climb more than 52% from recent levels amid AI infrastructure demand. Nvidia stock price jumped almost 1% in premarket on Thursday after a recent meeting with US President Donald Trump. Ad Ad Cantor Fitzgerald Recommends ‘Buy’ on NVIDIA
- 2026-10-0112:30 UTCNvidia's massive share repurchase authorization indicates that the stock is undervalued.
- 2026-10-0111:45 UTCAfter gaining more than 13,500% over the past decade, Nvidia stock still has plenty of upside potential over the next 10 years.
- 2026-10-0111:20 UTCMedtronic is following a strategy that has worked well for Johnson & Johnson.
- 2026-10-0108:43 UTCThe global generative AI market is projected to grow from USD 185.45 billion in 2026 to USD 1.65 trillion by 2033, at a 36.8% CAGR. Growth is driven by enterprise AI adoption, copilots, multimodal models, agentic AI, cloud infrastructure and workflow automation—the fastest-growing application. IT & ITeS will lead end-user share, North America will remain the largest market, and Asia Pacific will g
- 2026-10-0108:40 UTCThe global artificial intelligence (AI) market is projected to grow from USD 601.93 billion in 2026 to USD 3.63 trillion by 2033, registering a 29.3% CAGR. Growth is driven by generative AI adoption, enterprise automation, cloud AI services and investment in AI infrastructure. AI software will be the fastest-growing offering, while operations and supply chain will remain the largest business funct
- 2026-10-0106:30 UTCMU, NVDA and GOOGL remain key Tech growth drivers as S&P 500 Q3 earnings are projected to rise 24.1% on 11.6% higher revenue.
- 2026-10-0102:09 UTCCoreWeave (NasdaqGS:CRWV) unveiled Forge, a unified AI development environment, at its Fully Connected AI cloud conference. The company introduced the CoreWeave Partner Network, featuring validated technology integrations aimed at enterprise and advanced AI users. CoreWeave expanded its compute lineup by adding the NVIDIA Vera CPU to support emerging AI agent workloads. Forge, the new Partner Netw
- 2026-10-0101:23 UTCIn recent days, Semtech Corporation announced it had completed an integration of its AirLink secure edge 5G/LTE routers and management tools with Palo Alto Networks’ NGFWs and Zero Touch PKI, aiming to simplify secure connectivity across large-scale edge deployments. A separate launch of Palo Alto Networks’ Unit 42 Continuous Frontier AI Defense underscores how the company is weaving advanced AI m
- 2026-10-0101:05 UTCGMI Cloud, an AI-native cloud delivering high-performance GPU infrastructure and inference services, today announced $668 million in new financing, comprising $223 million in equity for Series B and a $445 million credit facility led by CTBC. The Series B was led by ARCHIV, a new investment firm based in San Francisco that specializes in AI and robotics, with participation from NVIDIA. This round
- 2026-10-0100:23 UTCNvidia expects to grow revenue at a 70% pace next year.
- 2026-09-3023:30 UTCNvidia is reportedly turning to insurers to shoulder the risk for neocloud GPU loans to boost its customers' spending power.
- 2026-09-3023:04 UTCTaiwan Semiconductor is the main foundry for those three chip designers, and its report could impact their stocks, too.
- 2026-09-3022:37 UTCGetting there would take around 12% a year. What needs to go right?
- 2026-09-3022:32 UTCNvidia is buying back stock as AI doubts grow.
- hidden156 provider-tagged items never name the company and are kept as context only.
canonical items of the last 10 sessions; analyst/industry/macro commentary and social sources excluded from the direction tally; gating uses tier 1-3 HIGH items within 3 (negative) / 2 (unknown direction) sessions
Catalysts and filings
| Event | Date | In | Materiality | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings (after the close) | 2026-11-17 | 31 sessions | high | finnhub · Tier 3 · provider |
Options activity
- Session volume
- 183.4K
- 5D baseline
- 85.0K
- 20D baseline
- 40.7K
- Volume / 20D
- 4.51x
- Call / put volume
- 116.5K / 66.9K
- Call / put ratio
- 1.74
- Top-3 contract share
- 39%
- Top expiration
- 2026-10-09 94%
Activity trend · last 45 sessions
| Session | Volume | 5D | 20D | / 20D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | 44.5K | 37.7K | 23.7K | 1.88x |
| 2026-09-28 | 139.6K | 42.8K | 25.0K | 5.58x |
| 2026-09-29 | 82.4K | 60.8K | 31.3K | 2.63x |
| 2026-09-30 | 120.8K | 69.3K | 35.0K | 3.45x |
| 2026-10-01 | 183.4K | 85.0K | 40.7K | 4.51x |
Call vs put volume
calls 64%puts 36%
Expiration concentration
Contract concentration
Top contracts · session 2026-10-01
| Contract | Type | Strike | Expiration | DTE | Volume | 5D avg | 20D avg | / 20D | Return | Moneyness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O:NVDA261009C00235000 | CALL | 235 | 2026-10-09 | 8 | 32.0K | 5,853 | 3,586 | 8.92x | -1.7% | OTM (-1.8%) |
| O:NVDA261009C00230000 | CALL | 230 | 2026-10-09 | 8 | 21.6K | 6,068 | 3,876 | 5.57x | 2.3% | ATM (0.4%) |
| O:NVDA261009C00240000 | CALL | 240 | 2026-10-09 | 8 | 18.8K | 6,273 | 2,617 | 7.18x | 1.0% | OTM (-3.8%) |
| O:NVDA261009P00230000 | PUT | 230 | 2026-10-09 | 8 | 18.7K | 5,134 | 1,561 | 12.00x | -18.6% | ATM (0.4%) |
| O:NVDA261009C00242500 | CALL | 242.5 | 2026-10-09 | 8 | 17.3K | 969 | insufficient history | insufficient history | -16.7% | OTM (-4.8%) |
| O:NVDA261009P00227500 | PUT | 227.5 | 2026-10-09 | 8 | 11.4K | 925 | insufficient history | insufficient history | -28.6% | OTM (1.5%) |
| O:NVDA261009P00220000 | PUT | 220 | 2026-10-09 | 8 | 7,358 | 5,891 | 2,316 | 3.18x | -26.5% | OTM (4.9%) |
| O:NVDA261009C00232500 | CALL | 232.5 | 2026-10-09 | 8 | 7,341 | 2,922 | insufficient history | insufficient history | 3.7% | OTM (-0.7%) |
| O:NVDA261009P00225000 | PUT | 225 | 2026-10-09 | 8 | 7,228 | 3,012 | 1,320 | 5.47x | -27.6% | OTM (2.6%) |
| O:NVDA261009P00242500 | PUT | 242.5 | 2026-10-09 | 8 | 6,400 | 130 | insufficient history | insufficient history | -12.9% | ITM (-4.8%) |
| O:NVDA261009C00237500 | CALL | 237.5 | 2026-10-09 | 8 | 4,486 | 1,698 | insufficient history | insufficient history | 3.4% | OTM (-2.8%) |
| O:NVDA261009P00240000 | PUT | 240 | 2026-10-09 | 8 | 4,336 | 272 | 103 | 42.28x | -1.3% | ITM (-3.8%) |
| O:NVDA261009C00220000 | CALL | 220 | 2026-10-09 | 8 | 3,422 | 962 | 1,316 | 2.60x | 6.9% | ITM (4.9%) |
| O:NVDA261009P00222500 | PUT | 222.5 | 2026-10-09 | 8 | 2,667 | 2,126 | insufficient history | insufficient history | -28.9% | OTM (3.8%) |
| O:NVDA261012C00230000 | CALL | 230 | 2026-10-12 | 11 | 1,881 | insufficient history | insufficient history | insufficient history | 6.0% | ATM (0.4%) |
OPTIONS_SELECTION_M9_V1 selected contracts only · provider capability DELAYED · delayed · Top 15 selected contracts by session volume; 5D/20D averages use strictly prior sessions (M10), INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY is shown, never zero.
M13 observations for this session
- Technical setup present (PRE_BREAKOUT_V1): FALSE
- Technical and options context share a session: FALSE
- Activity above its own 20-session baseline: TRUE
- Activity below its own 20-session baseline: FALSE
- Recent 5-session baseline above 20-session baseline: TRUE
- Recent 5-session baseline below 20-session baseline: FALSE
- Volume concentrated in top 3 contracts: FALSE
- Volume concentrated in one expiration: TRUE
- Calls carry most session volume: TRUE
- Puts carry most session volume: FALSE
- Call and put volume roughly balanced: FALSE
- Enrichment data (snapshot/OI/IV/Greeks) available: FALSE
- Enrichment data unavailable: TRUE
- Real flow data unavailable: TRUE
- Flow events present in replay window: NOT_EVALUABLE
Flow
Flow events—
Clusters—
Sweep candidates—
Block candidates—
Aggressor candidates—
Premium coverage—
Flow engine is ready. Trades and Quotes are not available with the current provider capabilities; this area populates automatically from the same M11 engine when real persisted facts exist. Synthetic fixture flow is never shown.
Evidence alerts
| Category | Alert | Previous | Current | Sessions | Workflow | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Disappeared | Technical setup disappeared | yes | no | 2026-10-01 → 2026-10-02 | New | |
| Changed | Distance to resistance narrowed | 0.81 | -0.52 | 2026-10-01 → 2026-10-02 | New | |
| Changed | Options activity vs 20D baseline rose | 3.45 | 4.51 | 2026-09-30 → 2026-10-01 | New | |
| Changed | Top expiration concentration increased | 0.69 | 0.94 | 2026-09-30 → 2026-10-01 | New | |
| Changed | Call / put volume mix changed | 0.49 | 0.64 | 2026-09-30 → 2026-10-01 | New |
Decision trace
- setup_eligiblePASSPRE_BREAKOUT on 2026-10-01; close above its resistance 232.75 on 2026-10-02
- trigger_statePASSTRIGGERED: close 233.95 above 232.75 inside the entry zone, 1.53 ATR from EMA20close=233.95 · entry_zone_high=235.7 · extension_atr=1.53 | threshold breakout_max_extension_atr=2
- data_freshnessPASS0 completed session(s) behind the calendarsessions_behind=0 | threshold max_sessions_behind=1
- price_gatePASSclose 233.95 at or above the 10 floorclose=233.95 | threshold min_price=10
- market_cap_gatePASSmarket cap 5563.73B (finnhub, 2026-10-02)market_cap_usd=5563726118953.86 | threshold min_market_cap_usd=1000000000
- liquidity_gatePASSADV20 24631.7M (STRONG_LIQUIDITY)adv_dollar=24631710485.55 · strong_liquidity=true | threshold min_adv_dollar=25000000, strong_adv_dollar=50000000
- sector_gatePASSsector Technology (finnhub_industry)
- market_regime_gatePASSregime RISK_ONregime=RISK_ON · risk_multiplier=1
- event_risk_gatePASSearnings in 31 sessions (2026-11-17)earnings_sessions_away=31 | threshold earnings_block_sessions=5
- news_gatePASSnews context MIXED
- chase_gatePASS1.53 ATR above EMA20, session move 0.52 ATRextension_atr=1.53 | threshold breakout_max_extension_atr=2
- risk_rewardPASSreward/risk 2.32 to target 1 (acceptable), 3.98 to target 2reward_risk_1=2.32 · reward_risk_2=3.98 | threshold min_reward_risk_1=2
- portfolio_gatePASS1 shares (234), bound by risk budgetshares=1 · risk_amount=7.12 · regime_multiplier=1 · share_increment=1
- data_qualityPASScurrent session data, valid technical snapshot, trigger and ATR; critical facts known
- finalPASSBUY_NOW
Snapshot history: 2026-10-02 BUY_NOW · 2026-10-01 BUY_ON_TRIGGER · 2026-09-30 BUY_ON_TRIGGER
Actions are generated from the configured trading strategy and current available market/intelligence data. They are not guarantees of future performance.