Research Hypotheses
M8 pre-registered PRE_BREAKOUT_V2 hypothesis research and design. Descriptive only: this is not V2, defines no rule or threshold, and nothing here auto-promotes to CANDIDATE_FOR_V2.
WATCH / confirmation / concentration / episode reports
| ID | Title | Status | Expected direction | Primary unit | Possible V2 effect | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H8-01 | Distance to resistance and resistance interaction | ANALYZED | NEGATIVE | EPISODE_FIRST_SIGNAL | HARD CONDITION | FIXTURE_SYNTHETIC |
| H8-02 | Resistance resolution explains outcome dispersion (explanatory) | ANALYZED | POSITIVE | EPISODE_FIRST_SIGNAL | WATCH BEHAVIOR | FIXTURE_SYNTHETIC |
| H8-03 | PRE_BREAKOUT as WATCH: confirmation entry versus signal entry | REJECTED | POSITIVE | EPISODE_FIRST_SIGNAL | HARD CONDITION | FIXTURE_SYNTHETIC |
| H8-04 | Failed breakout after confirmation (explanatory) | ANALYZED | POSITIVE | EPISODE_FIRST_SIGNAL | WATCH BEHAVIOR | FIXTURE_SYNTHETIC |
| H8-05 | RSI position inside the V1 legal range | ANALYZED | NONE_TWO_SIDED | EPISODE_FIRST_SIGNAL | HARD CONDITION | FIXTURE_SYNTHETIC |
| H8-06 | ATR compression | ANALYZED | POSITIVE | EPISODE_FIRST_SIGNAL | HARD CONDITION | FIXTURE_SYNTHETIC |
| H8-07 | Volume contraction | REJECTED | POSITIVE | EPISODE_FIRST_SIGNAL | HARD CONDITION | FIXTURE_SYNTHETIC |
| H8-08 | Confirmed higher lows | ANALYZED | POSITIVE | EPISODE_FIRST_SIGNAL | HARD CONDITION | FIXTURE_SYNTHETIC |
| H8-09 | Full moving-average alignment | REJECTED | POSITIVE | EPISODE_FIRST_SIGNAL | HARD CONDITION | FIXTURE_SYNTHETIC |
| H8-10 | RS20 state | ANALYZED | POSITIVE | EPISODE_FIRST_SIGNAL | HARD CONDITION | FIXTURE_SYNTHETIC |
| H8-11 | Episode position and repeated signals | ANALYZED | NONE_TWO_SIDED | SIGNAL | WATCH BEHAVIOR | FIXTURE_SYNTHETIC |
| H8-12 | Confirmation volume context | ANALYZED | POSITIVE | EPISODE_FIRST_SIGNAL | SUPPORTING EVIDENCE | FIXTURE_SYNTHETIC |