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Daily run 2026-10-02 · completeWatchlist 0
Research Hypotheses

H8-03

PRE_BREAKOUT as WATCH: confirmation entry versus signal entry

If PRE_BREAKOUT is a watch state, entering only after a close above R may avoid unconfirmed signals that carry most adverse excursion, at the cost of a later, higher entry and fewer entries.

Status
REJECTED · eligibility ELIGIBLE_IF_GATE_PASSES
Exact measurement
Two distinct analyses that are never presented as equivalent. H8-03A POINT_IN_TIME_WATCH_POLICY is the only promotion evidence. H8-03B EXPLANATORY_CONFIRMED_SUBSET is LOOKAHEAD_CONDITIONED_EXPLANATORY and never satisfies the gate by itself. Signal-anchor and confirmation-anchor entries begin on different sessions and are never implied to occur at the same time.
Features / source versions
confirmation_state · CA_CONFIRMATION_EVENT, CA_OUTCOME, M5_SIGNAL_OUTCOME
Population
ORIGINAL_DEVELOPMENT, EXPANSION_RESEARCH, COMBINED_NON_SEALED · unit EPISODE_FIRST_SIGNAL
Exclusions
  • SEALED_VALIDATION symbols are never read (fail closed).
  • SPY/QQQ benchmarks are inputs, never candidates.
  • NO_SETUP and INSUFFICIENT_DATA evaluations have no outcomes.
  • Non-COMPLETE outcomes/paths supply no values but stay in denominators with reasons.
  • UNKNOWN supporting states are excluded from known-only comparisons and reported.
Horizons
5, 10, 20, 1, 3 · WATCH windows 10, 5, 20
Compared groups
H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES vs V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS
Expected direction
POSITIVE — In H8-03A with W=10, median MAE among actual confirmation entries is less negative than median MAE of V1 signal-anchored outcomes of all units, and median gross return among confirmation entries is >= the V1 signal-anchored median, at H=10 and H=20. The two policies enter on different sessions; this compares two point-in-time policies, not simultaneous executions.
Falsification condition
In H8-03A with W=10, median MAE among confirmation entries <= the V1 signal-anchored median MAE, or median gross return among confirmation entries < the V1 median, at H=10 or 20, or a sign reversal under any required diagnostic.
Robustness requirements
D-A, D-B, D-C, D-D, D-E
Point in time
EVALUABLE_AT_CONFIRMATION_CLOSE
Promotion eligibility state
ELIGIBLE_IF_GATE_PASSES

Possible V2 effects

Hard condition
PRE_BREAKOUT would become a WATCH trigger rather than an entry event.
Supporting evidence
NONE
WATCH behavior
WATCH window length taken from registered W only.
BREAKOUT_CONFIRMATION
Close above R as the confirmation event.

Distinct analyses

H8-03A — POINT_IN_TIME_WATCH_POLICY

POINT_IN_TIME_EVALUABLE · PROMOTION_EVIDENCE

PRE_BREAKOUT starts WATCH. Confirmation is the first eligible session inside W (E..E+W-1) with close>R. The hypothetical confirmation entry is provider_daily_open of the next eligible session after confirmation. If no confirmation occurs inside W the status is NO_ENTRY. NO_ENTRY is never converted to a 0% return and supplies no outcome values. Outcome statistics are computed only among actual confirmation entries. The V1 signal-anchored outcomes of all units are the reference policy.

CONFIRMATION_ANCHOR: confirmation session C close is known; entry is provider_daily_open of the next expected XNYS session after C. C is later than T, so the two anchors begin on different sessions. They are not two executions at the same point in time. The comparison is descriptive research, not an execution recommendation.

H8-03B — EXPLANATORY_CONFIRMED_SUBSET

LOOKAHEAD_CONDITIONED_EXPLANATORY · EXPLANATORY_ONLY_NOT_GATE_EVIDENCE

Among units known in hindsight to have confirmed inside W, compare the existing M5 signal-anchored outcomes with confirmation-anchored outcomes of the same units, paired. Selection uses information after the signal anchor. Descriptive only; never satisfies the promotion gate by itself.

LOOKAHEAD_CONDITIONED_EXPLANATORY. CONFIRMATION_ANCHOR: confirmation session C close is known; entry is provider_daily_open of the next expected XNYS session after C. C is later than T, so the two anchors begin on different sessions. They are not two executions at the same point in time. The comparison is descriptive research, not an execution recommendation.

Results

H8-03A — POINT_IN_TIME_WATCH_POLICY (promotion evidence)

Confirmation is the first eligible session inside the WATCH window with close > R. NO_ENTRY is never a 0% return: units without a confirmation are excluded from the outcome statistics and reported separately below.

Primary population

N signals 1 · episodes 1 · symbols 1 · UNKNOWN 0

H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES

N signals 0 · episodes 0 · symbols 0

  • confirmation_rate: 0/1 (0.0%)
  • no_entry_count: 1/1 (100.0%)
  • undetermined_incomplete_window_count: 0/1 (0.0%)
horizontotalcompleteincompleteexclusionspositivepositive denominatorpositive ratemean returnq25 returnmedian returnq75 returnmean mfemedian mfemean maemedian mae
1000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
3000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
5000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
10000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
20000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS

N signals 1 · episodes 1 · symbols 1

horizontotalcompleteincompleteexclusionspositivepositive denominatorpositive ratemean returnq25 returnmedian returnq75 returnmean mfemedian mfemean maemedian mae
1110
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
01000000000
3110
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
01000000000
5110
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
01000000000
10110
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
01000000000
20110
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
01000000000

Promotion-gate eligibility

INELIGIBLE SAMPLE GATE

Mechanical eligibility only; never sets CANDIDATE_FOR_V2.

  • insufficient_sample:H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES
  • insufficient_sample:V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS
  • insufficient_sample:H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES
  • insufficient_sample:V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS
  • insufficient_sample:H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES
  • insufficient_sample:V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS
  • insufficient_sample:H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES
  • insufficient_sample:V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS
  • insufficient_sample:H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES
  • insufficient_sample:V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS
  • insufficient_sample:H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES
  • insufficient_sample:V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS
  • insufficient_sample:H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES
  • insufficient_sample:V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS
  • insufficient_sample:H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES
  • insufficient_sample:V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS
Exact evidence / member IDs
{
  "version": "M8_PROMOTION_GATE_V1",
  "status": "INELIGIBLE_SAMPLE_GATE",
  "reasons": [
    "insufficient_sample:H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES",
    "insufficient_sample:V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS",
    "insufficient_sample:H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES",
    "insufficient_sample:V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS",
    "insufficient_sample:H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES",
    "insufficient_sample:V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS",
    "insufficient_sample:H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES",
    "insufficient_sample:V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS",
    "insufficient_sample:H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES",
    "insufficient_sample:V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS",
    "insufficient_sample:H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES",
    "insufficient_sample:V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS",
    "insufficient_sample:H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES",
    "insufficient_sample:V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS",
    "insufficient_sample:H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES",
    "insufficient_sample:V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS"
  ],
  "sample_gate_groups": [
    [
      "H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES",
      0,
      0
    ],
    [
      "V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS",
      1,
      1
    ],
    [
      "H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES",
      0,
      0
    ],
    [
      "V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS",
      1,
      1
    ],
    [
      "H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES",
      0,
      0
    ],
    [
      "V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS",
      1,
      1
    ],
    [
      "H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES",
      0,
      0
    ],
    [
      "V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS",
      0,
      0
    ],
    [
      "H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES",
      0,
      0
    ],
    [
      "V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS",
      1,
      1
    ],
    [
      "H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES",
      0,
      0
    ],
    [
      "V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS",
      0,
      0
    ],
    [
      "H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES",
      0,
      0
    ],
    [
      "V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS",
      0,
      0
    ],
    [
      "H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES",
      0,
      0
    ],
    [
      "V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS",
      0,
      0
    ]
  ],
  "correlations_checked": [],
  "diagnostics_present": [
    "D-A",
    "D-B",
    "D-C",
    "D-D",
    "D-E"
  ],
  "note": "Mechanical eligibility only; never sets CANDIDATE_FOR_V2."
}

Robustness diagnostics

D-A — unit of analysis (all signals) — ALL_SIGNALS

N signals 1 · episodes 1 · symbols 1 · UNKNOWN 0

H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES

N signals 0 · episodes 0 · symbols 0

  • confirmation_rate: 0/1 (0.0%)
  • no_entry_count: 1/1 (100.0%)
  • undetermined_incomplete_window_count: 0/1 (0.0%)
horizontotalcompleteincompleteexclusionspositivepositive denominatorpositive ratemean returnq25 returnmedian returnq75 returnmean mfemedian mfemean maemedian mae
1000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
3000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
5000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
10000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
20000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS

N signals 1 · episodes 1 · symbols 1

horizontotalcompleteincompleteexclusionspositivepositive denominatorpositive ratemean returnq25 returnmedian returnq75 returnmean mfemedian mfemean maemedian mae
1110
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
01000000000
3110
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
01000000000
5110
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
01000000000
10110
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
01000000000
20110
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
01000000000

D-B — symbol halves (development robustness split, not a holdout) — HALF_A

N signals 1 · episodes 1 · symbols 1 · UNKNOWN 0

H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES

N signals 0 · episodes 0 · symbols 0

  • confirmation_rate: 0/1 (0.0%)
  • no_entry_count: 1/1 (100.0%)
  • undetermined_incomplete_window_count: 0/1 (0.0%)
horizontotalcompleteincompleteexclusionspositivepositive denominatorpositive ratemean returnq25 returnmedian returnq75 returnmean mfemedian mfemean maemedian mae
1000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
3000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
5000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
10000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
20000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS

N signals 1 · episodes 1 · symbols 1

horizontotalcompleteincompleteexclusionspositivepositive denominatorpositive ratemean returnq25 returnmedian returnq75 returnmean mfemedian mfemean maemedian mae
1110
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
01000000000
3110
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
01000000000
5110
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
01000000000
10110
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
01000000000
20110
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
01000000000

D-B — symbol halves (development robustness split, not a holdout) — HALF_B

N signals 0 · episodes 0 · symbols 0 · UNKNOWN 0

H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES

N signals 0 · episodes 0 · symbols 0

  • confirmation_rate: 0/0 (unavailable)
  • no_entry_count: 0/0 (unavailable)
  • undetermined_incomplete_window_count: 0/0 (unavailable)
horizontotalcompleteincompleteexclusionspositivepositive denominatorpositive ratemean returnq25 returnmedian returnq75 returnmean mfemedian mfemean maemedian mae
1000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
3000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
5000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
10000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
20000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS

N signals 0 · episodes 0 · symbols 0

horizontotalcompleteincompleteexclusionspositivepositive denominatorpositive ratemean returnq25 returnmedian returnq75 returnmean mfemedian mfemean maemedian mae
1000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
3000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
5000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
10000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
20000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

D-C — temporal halves — FIRST_HALF

N signals 1 · episodes 1 · symbols 1 · UNKNOWN 0

H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES

N signals 0 · episodes 0 · symbols 0

  • confirmation_rate: 0/1 (0.0%)
  • no_entry_count: 1/1 (100.0%)
  • undetermined_incomplete_window_count: 0/1 (0.0%)
horizontotalcompleteincompleteexclusionspositivepositive denominatorpositive ratemean returnq25 returnmedian returnq75 returnmean mfemedian mfemean maemedian mae
1000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
3000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
5000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
10000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
20000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS

N signals 1 · episodes 1 · symbols 1

horizontotalcompleteincompleteexclusionspositivepositive denominatorpositive ratemean returnq25 returnmedian returnq75 returnmean mfemedian mfemean maemedian mae
1110
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
01000000000
3110
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
01000000000
5110
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
01000000000
10110
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
01000000000
20110
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
01000000000

D-C — temporal halves — SECOND_HALF

N signals 0 · episodes 0 · symbols 0 · UNKNOWN 0

H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES

N signals 0 · episodes 0 · symbols 0

  • confirmation_rate: 0/0 (unavailable)
  • no_entry_count: 0/0 (unavailable)
  • undetermined_incomplete_window_count: 0/0 (unavailable)
horizontotalcompleteincompleteexclusionspositivepositive denominatorpositive ratemean returnq25 returnmedian returnq75 returnmean mfemedian mfemean maemedian mae
1000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
3000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
5000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
10000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
20000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS

N signals 0 · episodes 0 · symbols 0

horizontotalcompleteincompleteexclusionspositivepositive denominatorpositive ratemean returnq25 returnmedian returnq75 returnmean mfemedian mfemean maemedian mae
1000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
3000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
5000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
10000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
20000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

D-D — concentration exclusion — EXCLUDE_TOP5_SYMBOLS

N signals 0 · episodes 0 · symbols 0 · UNKNOWN 0

H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES

N signals 0 · episodes 0 · symbols 0

  • confirmation_rate: 0/0 (unavailable)
  • no_entry_count: 0/0 (unavailable)
  • undetermined_incomplete_window_count: 0/0 (unavailable)
horizontotalcompleteincompleteexclusionspositivepositive denominatorpositive ratemean returnq25 returnmedian returnq75 returnmean mfemedian mfemean maemedian mae
1000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
3000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
5000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
10000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
20000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS

N signals 0 · episodes 0 · symbols 0

horizontotalcompleteincompleteexclusionspositivepositive denominatorpositive ratemean returnq25 returnmedian returnq75 returnmean mfemedian mfemean maemedian mae
1000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
3000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
5000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
10000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
20000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

D-D — concentration exclusion — EXCLUDE_TOP3_MONTHS

N signals 0 · episodes 0 · symbols 0 · UNKNOWN 0

H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES

N signals 0 · episodes 0 · symbols 0

  • confirmation_rate: 0/0 (unavailable)
  • no_entry_count: 0/0 (unavailable)
  • undetermined_incomplete_window_count: 0/0 (unavailable)
horizontotalcompleteincompleteexclusionspositivepositive denominatorpositive ratemean returnq25 returnmedian returnq75 returnmean mfemedian mfemean maemedian mae
1000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
3000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
5000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
10000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
20000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS

N signals 0 · episodes 0 · symbols 0

horizontotalcompleteincompleteexclusionspositivepositive denominatorpositive ratemean returnq25 returnmedian returnq75 returnmean mfemedian mfemean maemedian mae
1000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
3000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
5000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
10000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
20000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

D-E — ORIGINAL_DEVELOPMENT alone — ORIGINAL_DEVELOPMENT

N signals 0 · episodes 0 · symbols 0 · UNKNOWN 0

H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES

N signals 0 · episodes 0 · symbols 0

  • confirmation_rate: 0/0 (unavailable)
  • no_entry_count: 0/0 (unavailable)
  • undetermined_incomplete_window_count: 0/0 (unavailable)
horizontotalcompleteincompleteexclusionspositivepositive denominatorpositive ratemean returnq25 returnmedian returnq75 returnmean mfemedian mfemean maemedian mae
1000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
3000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
5000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
10000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
20000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS

N signals 0 · episodes 0 · symbols 0

horizontotalcompleteincompleteexclusionspositivepositive denominatorpositive ratemean returnq25 returnmedian returnq75 returnmean mfemedian mfemean maemedian mae
1000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
3000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
5000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
10000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
20000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
Exact evidence / member IDs
{
  "artifact_version": "M8_ARTIFACT_V1",
  "hypothesis_id": "H8-03A",
  "registry_version": "M8_HYPOTHESIS_REGISTRY_V1",
  "registry_sha256": "1ec4184d35936d6b761bc08b5efe541bf802266c941c4a88d5c081c40fd8bfd6",
  "calculation_versions": {
    "registry_version": "M8_HYPOTHESIS_REGISTRY_V1",
    "registry_sha256": "1ec4184d35936d6b761bc08b5efe541bf802266c941c4a88d5c081c40fd8bfd6",
    "watch_path_version": "WATCH_PATH_V1",
    "confirmation_anchor_version": "CONFIRMATION_ANCHOR_V1",
    "symbol_half_version": "M8_SYMBOL_HALF_V1",
    "temporal_half_version": "M8_TEMPORAL_HALF_V1",
    "bins_version": "M8_BINS_V1",
    "diagnostics_version": "M8_DIAGNOSTICS_V1",
    "promotion_gate_version": "M8_PROMOTION_GATE_V1",
    "m6_engine_version": "M6_RESEARCH_V1",
    "m6_path_version": "FROZEN_RESISTANCE_PATH_V1",
    "episode_version": "CONSECUTIVE_EXCHANGE_SESSIONS_V1",
    "statistics_version": "LINEAR_N_MINUS_ONE_QUANTILES_V1",
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        "diagnostic_id": "D-D",
        "label": "EXCLUDE_TOP3_MONTHS",
        "result": {
          "n_signals": 0,
          "n_episodes": 0,
          "n_symbols": 0,
          "unknown_n": 0,
          "groups": [
            {
              "group": "H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES",
              "n_signals": 0,
              "n_episodes": 0,
              "n_symbols": 0,
              "outcomes": [
                {
                  "horizon": 1,
                  "total": 0,
                  "complete": 0,
                  "incomplete": 0,
                  "exclusions": [],
                  "positive": 0,
                  "positive_denominator": 0,
                  "positive_rate": null,
                  "mean_return": null,
                  "q25_return": null,
                  "median_return": null,
                  "q75_return": null,
                  "mean_mfe": null,
                  "median_mfe": null,
                  "mean_mae": null,
                  "median_mae": null,
                  "member_ids": []
                },
                {
                  "horizon": 3,
                  "total": 0,
                  "complete": 0,
                  "incomplete": 0,
                  "exclusions": [],
                  "positive": 0,
                  "positive_denominator": 0,
                  "positive_rate": null,
                  "mean_return": null,
                  "q25_return": null,
                  "median_return": null,
                  "q75_return": null,
                  "mean_mfe": null,
                  "median_mfe": null,
                  "mean_mae": null,
                  "median_mae": null,
                  "member_ids": []
                },
                {
                  "horizon": 5,
                  "total": 0,
                  "complete": 0,
                  "incomplete": 0,
                  "exclusions": [],
                  "positive": 0,
                  "positive_denominator": 0,
                  "positive_rate": null,
                  "mean_return": null,
                  "q25_return": null,
                  "median_return": null,
                  "q75_return": null,
                  "mean_mfe": null,
                  "median_mfe": null,
                  "mean_mae": null,
                  "median_mae": null,
                  "member_ids": []
                },
                {
                  "horizon": 10,
                  "total": 0,
                  "complete": 0,
                  "incomplete": 0,
                  "exclusions": [],
                  "positive": 0,
                  "positive_denominator": 0,
                  "positive_rate": null,
                  "mean_return": null,
                  "q25_return": null,
                  "median_return": null,
                  "q75_return": null,
                  "mean_mfe": null,
                  "median_mfe": null,
                  "mean_mae": null,
                  "median_mae": null,
                  "member_ids": []
                },
                {
                  "horizon": 20,
                  "total": 0,
                  "complete": 0,
                  "incomplete": 0,
                  "exclusions": [],
                  "positive": 0,
                  "positive_denominator": 0,
                  "positive_rate": null,
                  "mean_return": null,
                  "q25_return": null,
                  "median_return": null,
                  "q75_return": null,
                  "mean_mfe": null,
                  "median_mfe": null,
                  "mean_mae": null,
                  "median_mae": null,
                  "member_ids": []
                }
              ],
              "rates": [
                {
                  "metric": "confirmation_rate",
                  "horizon": null,
                  "numerator": 0,
                  "denominator": 0,
                  "rate": null
                },
                {
                  "metric": "no_entry_count",
                  "horizon": null,
                  "numerator": 0,
                  "denominator": 0,
                  "rate": null
                },
                {
                  "metric": "undetermined_incomplete_window_count",
                  "horizon": null,
                  "numerator": 0,
                  "denominator": 0,
                  "rate": null
                }
              ]
            },
            {
              "group": "V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS",
              "n_signals": 0,
              "n_episodes": 0,
              "n_symbols": 0,
              "outcomes": [
                {
                  "horizon": 1,
                  "total": 0,
                  "complete": 0,
                  "incomplete": 0,
                  "exclusions": [],
                  "positive": 0,
                  "positive_denominator": 0,
                  "positive_rate": null,
                  "mean_return": null,
                  "q25_return": null,
                  "median_return": null,
                  "q75_return": null,
                  "mean_mfe": null,
                  "median_mfe": null,
                  "mean_mae": null,
                  "median_mae": null,
                  "member_ids": []
                },
                {
                  "horizon": 3,
                  "total": 0,
                  "complete": 0,
                  "incomplete": 0,
                  "exclusions": [],
                  "positive": 0,
                  "positive_denominator": 0,
                  "positive_rate": null,
                  "mean_return": null,
                  "q25_return": null,
                  "median_return": null,
                  "q75_return": null,
                  "mean_mfe": null,
                  "median_mfe": null,
                  "mean_mae": null,
                  "median_mae": null,
                  "member_ids": []
                },
                {
                  "horizon": 5,
                  "total": 0,
                  "complete": 0,
                  "incomplete": 0,
                  "exclusions": [],
                  "positive": 0,
                  "positive_denominator": 0,
                  "positive_rate": null,
                  "mean_return": null,
                  "q25_return": null,
                  "median_return": null,
                  "q75_return": null,
                  "mean_mfe": null,
                  "median_mfe": null,
                  "mean_mae": null,
                  "median_mae": null,
                  "member_ids": []
                },
                {
                  "horizon": 10,
                  "total": 0,
                  "complete": 0,
                  "incomplete": 0,
                  "exclusions": [],
                  "positive": 0,
                  "positive_denominator": 0,
                  "positive_rate": null,
                  "mean_return": null,
                  "q25_return": null,
                  "median_return": null,
                  "q75_return": null,
                  "mean_mfe": null,
                  "median_mfe": null,
                  "mean_mae": null,
                  "median_mae": null,
                  "member_ids": []
                },
                {
                  "horizon": 20,
                  "total": 0,
                  "complete": 0,
                  "incomplete": 0,
                  "exclusions": [],
                  "positive": 0,
                  "positive_denominator": 0,
                  "positive_rate": null,
                  "mean_return": null,
                  "q25_return": null,
                  "median_return": null,
                  "q75_return": null,
                  "mean_mfe": null,
                  "median_mfe": null,
                  "mean_mae": null,
                  "median_mae": null,
                  "member_ids": []
                }
              ],
              "rates": []
            }
          ],
          "correlations": []
        }
      },
      {
        "diagnostic_id": "D-E",
        "label": "ORIGINAL_DEVELOPMENT",
        "result": {
          "n_signals": 0,
          "n_episodes": 0,
          "n_symbols": 0,
          "unknown_n": 0,
          "groups": [
            {
              "group": "H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES",
              "n_signals": 0,
              "n_episodes": 0,
              "n_symbols": 0,
              "outcomes": [
                {
                  "horizon": 1,
                  "total": 0,
                  "complete": 0,
                  "incomplete": 0,
                  "exclusions": [],
                  "positive": 0,
                  "positive_denominator": 0,
                  "positive_rate": null,
                  "mean_return": null,
                  "q25_return": null,
                  "median_return": null,
                  "q75_return": null,
                  "mean_mfe": null,
                  "median_mfe": null,
                  "mean_mae": null,
                  "median_mae": null,
                  "member_ids": []
                },
                {
                  "horizon": 3,
                  "total": 0,
                  "complete": 0,
                  "incomplete": 0,
                  "exclusions": [],
                  "positive": 0,
                  "positive_denominator": 0,
                  "positive_rate": null,
                  "mean_return": null,
                  "q25_return": null,
                  "median_return": null,
                  "q75_return": null,
                  "mean_mfe": null,
                  "median_mfe": null,
                  "mean_mae": null,
                  "median_mae": null,
                  "member_ids": []
                },
                {
                  "horizon": 5,
                  "total": 0,
                  "complete": 0,
                  "incomplete": 0,
                  "exclusions": [],
                  "positive": 0,
                  "positive_denominator": 0,
                  "positive_rate": null,
                  "mean_return": null,
                  "q25_return": null,
                  "median_return": null,
                  "q75_return": null,
                  "mean_mfe": null,
                  "median_mfe": null,
                  "mean_mae": null,
                  "median_mae": null,
                  "member_ids": []
                },
                {
                  "horizon": 10,
                  "total": 0,
                  "complete": 0,
                  "incomplete": 0,
                  "exclusions": [],
                  "positive": 0,
                  "positive_denominator": 0,
                  "positive_rate": null,
                  "mean_return": null,
                  "q25_return": null,
                  "median_return": null,
                  "q75_return": null,
                  "mean_mfe": null,
                  "median_mfe": null,
                  "mean_mae": null,
                  "median_mae": null,
                  "member_ids": []
                },
                {
                  "horizon": 20,
                  "total": 0,
                  "complete": 0,
                  "incomplete": 0,
                  "exclusions": [],
                  "positive": 0,
                  "positive_denominator": 0,
                  "positive_rate": null,
                  "mean_return": null,
                  "q25_return": null,
                  "median_return": null,
                  "q75_return": null,
                  "mean_mfe": null,
                  "median_mfe": null,
                  "mean_mae": null,
                  "median_mae": null,
                  "member_ids": []
                }
              ],
              "rates": [
                {
                  "metric": "confirmation_rate",
                  "horizon": null,
                  "numerator": 0,
                  "denominator": 0,
                  "rate": null
                },
                {
                  "metric": "no_entry_count",
                  "horizon": null,
                  "numerator": 0,
                  "denominator": 0,
                  "rate": null
                },
                {
                  "metric": "undetermined_incomplete_window_count",
                  "horizon": null,
                  "numerator": 0,
                  "denominator": 0,
                  "rate": null
                }
              ]
            },
            {
              "group": "V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS",
              "n_signals": 0,
              "n_episodes": 0,
              "n_symbols": 0,
              "outcomes": [
                {
                  "horizon": 1,
                  "total": 0,
                  "complete": 0,
                  "incomplete": 0,
                  "exclusions": [],
                  "positive": 0,
                  "positive_denominator": 0,
                  "positive_rate": null,
                  "mean_return": null,
                  "q25_return": null,
                  "median_return": null,
                  "q75_return": null,
                  "mean_mfe": null,
                  "median_mfe": null,
                  "mean_mae": null,
                  "median_mae": null,
                  "member_ids": []
                },
                {
                  "horizon": 3,
                  "total": 0,
                  "complete": 0,
                  "incomplete": 0,
                  "exclusions": [],
                  "positive": 0,
                  "positive_denominator": 0,
                  "positive_rate": null,
                  "mean_return": null,
                  "q25_return": null,
                  "median_return": null,
                  "q75_return": null,
                  "mean_mfe": null,
                  "median_mfe": null,
                  "mean_mae": null,
                  "median_mae": null,
                  "member_ids": []
                },
                {
                  "horizon": 5,
                  "total": 0,
                  "complete": 0,
                  "incomplete": 0,
                  "exclusions": [],
                  "positive": 0,
                  "positive_denominator": 0,
                  "positive_rate": null,
                  "mean_return": null,
                  "q25_return": null,
                  "median_return": null,
                  "q75_return": null,
                  "mean_mfe": null,
                  "median_mfe": null,
                  "mean_mae": null,
                  "median_mae": null,
                  "member_ids": []
                },
                {
                  "horizon": 10,
                  "total": 0,
                  "complete": 0,
                  "incomplete": 0,
                  "exclusions": [],
                  "positive": 0,
                  "positive_denominator": 0,
                  "positive_rate": null,
                  "mean_return": null,
                  "q25_return": null,
                  "median_return": null,
                  "q75_return": null,
                  "mean_mfe": null,
                  "median_mfe": null,
                  "mean_mae": null,
                  "median_mae": null,
                  "member_ids": []
                },
                {
                  "horizon": 20,
                  "total": 0,
                  "complete": 0,
                  "incomplete": 0,
                  "exclusions": [],
                  "positive": 0,
                  "positive_denominator": 0,
                  "positive_rate": null,
                  "mean_return": null,
                  "q25_return": null,
                  "median_return": null,
                  "q75_return": null,
                  "mean_mfe": null,
                  "median_mfe": null,
                  "mean_mae": null,
                  "median_mae": null,
                  "member_ids": []
                }
              ],
              "rates": []
            }
          ],
          "correlations": []
        }
      }
    ],
    "gate": {
      "version": "M8_PROMOTION_GATE_V1",
      "status": "INELIGIBLE_SAMPLE_GATE",
      "reasons": [
        "insufficient_sample:H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES",
        "insufficient_sample:V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS",
        "insufficient_sample:H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES",
        "insufficient_sample:V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS",
        "insufficient_sample:H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES",
        "insufficient_sample:V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS",
        "insufficient_sample:H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES",
        "insufficient_sample:V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS",
        "insufficient_sample:H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES",
        "insufficient_sample:V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS",
        "insufficient_sample:H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES",
        "insufficient_sample:V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS",
        "insufficient_sample:H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES",
        "insufficient_sample:V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS",
        "insufficient_sample:H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES",
        "insufficient_sample:V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS"
      ],
      "sample_gate_groups": [
        [
          "H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES",
          0,
          0
        ],
        [
          "V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS",
          1,
          1
        ],
        [
          "H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES",
          0,
          0
        ],
        [
          "V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS",
          1,
          1
        ],
        [
          "H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES",
          0,
          0
        ],
        [
          "V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS",
          1,
          1
        ],
        [
          "H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES",
          0,
          0
        ],
        [
          "V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS",
          0,
          0
        ],
        [
          "H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES",
          0,
          0
        ],
        [
          "V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS",
          1,
          1
        ],
        [
          "H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES",
          0,
          0
        ],
        [
          "V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS",
          0,
          0
        ],
        [
          "H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES",
          0,
          0
        ],
        [
          "V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS",
          0,
          0
        ],
        [
          "H8-03A_CONFIRMATION_ENTRIES",
          0,
          0
        ],
        [
          "V1_SIGNAL_ANCHOR_ALL_UNITS",
          0,
          0
        ]
      ],
      "correlations_checked": [],
      "diagnostics_present": [
        "D-A",
        "D-B",
        "D-C",
        "D-D",
        "D-E"
      ],
      "note": "Mechanical eligibility only; never sets CANDIDATE_FOR_V2."
    }
  },
  "result_sha256": "1079039984a522a3535228b7b2eaec1dff0826587b540a3f50a509eadb8d677d"
}

LOOKAHEAD-CONDITIONED EXPLANATORY ONLY — H8-03B EXPLANATORY_CONFIRMED_SUBSET

Selected using information after the signal anchor. Never satisfies the promotion gate by itself. Signal-anchor and confirmation-anchor entries begin on different sessions; this is descriptive research, not two executions at the same point in time, and is never combined with H8-03A as if they were same-time alternatives.

Primary population

N signals 1 · episodes 1 · symbols 1 · UNKNOWN 0

SIGNAL_ANCHOR

N signals 0 · episodes 0 · symbols 0

horizontotalcompleteincompleteexclusionspositivepositive denominatorpositive ratemean returnq25 returnmedian returnq75 returnmean mfemedian mfemean maemedian mae
1000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
3000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
5000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
10000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
20000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

CONFIRMATION_ANCHOR

N signals 0 · episodes 0 · symbols 0

horizontotalcompleteincompleteexclusionspositivepositive denominatorpositive ratemean returnq25 returnmedian returnq75 returnmean mfemedian mfemean maemedian mae
1000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
3000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
5000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
10000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
20000
Exact evidence / member IDs
[]
00UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

Promotion-gate eligibility

INELIGIBLE LOOKAHEAD

Mechanical eligibility only; never sets CANDIDATE_FOR_V2.

  • lookahead_conditioned_explanatory_never_gate_evidence
Exact evidence / member IDs
{
  "version": "M8_PROMOTION_GATE_V1",
  "status": "INELIGIBLE_LOOKAHEAD",
  "reasons": [
    "lookahead_conditioned_explanatory_never_gate_evidence"
  ],
  "sample_gate_groups": [],
  "correlations_checked": [],
  "diagnostics_present": [],
  "note": "Mechanical eligibility only; never sets CANDIDATE_FOR_V2."
}

Robustness diagnostics

Exact evidence / member IDs
{
  "artifact_version": "M8_ARTIFACT_V1",
  "hypothesis_id": "H8-03B",
  "registry_version": "M8_HYPOTHESIS_REGISTRY_V1",
  "registry_sha256": "1ec4184d35936d6b761bc08b5efe541bf802266c941c4a88d5c081c40fd8bfd6",
  "calculation_versions": {
    "registry_version": "M8_HYPOTHESIS_REGISTRY_V1",
    "registry_sha256": "1ec4184d35936d6b761bc08b5efe541bf802266c941c4a88d5c081c40fd8bfd6",
    "watch_path_version": "WATCH_PATH_V1",
    "confirmation_anchor_version": "CONFIRMATION_ANCHOR_V1",
    "symbol_half_version": "M8_SYMBOL_HALF_V1",
    "temporal_half_version": "M8_TEMPORAL_HALF_V1",
    "bins_version": "M8_BINS_V1",
    "diagnostics_version": "M8_DIAGNOSTICS_V1",
    "promotion_gate_version": "M8_PROMOTION_GATE_V1",
    "m6_engine_version": "M6_RESEARCH_V1",
    "m6_path_version": "FROZEN_RESISTANCE_PATH_V1",
    "episode_version": "CONSECUTIVE_EXCHANGE_SESSIONS_V1",
    "statistics_version": "LINEAR_N_MINUS_ONE_QUANTILES_V1",
    "correlation_version": "PEARSON_AVERAGE_RANK_SPEARMAN_N5_LOW10_V1",
    "rule_version": "PRE_BREAKOUT_V1"
  },
  "source": {
    "replay_run_id": "FIXTURE_RUN",
    "view": "EXPANSION_RESEARCH",
    "partitions_included": [
      "EXPANSION_RESEARCH"
    ],
    "signal_count": 1,
    "episode_count": 1,
    "symbol_count": 1
  },
  "data_origin": "FIXTURE_SYNTHETIC",
  "sealed_symbols_read": 0,
  "provenance": [
    "fixture_symbol:XYZA",
    "cli:generate-fixture-artifacts"
  ],
  "limitation": "Descriptive research on previously exposed RECONSTRUCTED development data; STATIC_SNAPSHOT survivorship/selection bias; Massive provider daily aggregate OHLC, NOT regular-session-only execution prices; dependent observations; holdout cutoff UNSET; no significance claims.",
  "limitation_labels": [
    "STATIC_SNAPSHOT_SURVIVORSHIP_SELECTION_BIAS",
    "RECONSTRUCTED_NOT_AS_TRADED",
    "MASSIVE_PROVIDER_DAILY_AGGREGATE_NOT_REGULAR_SESSION_ONLY_EXECUTION_PRICES",
    "PREVIOUSLY_EXPOSED_DATA_NO_TEMPORAL_HOLDOUT_CLAIM",
    "HOLDOUT_CUTOFF_UNSET",
    "DEPENDENT_OBSERVATIONS_NO_SIGNIFICANCE_CLAIMS"
  ],
  "analysis": {
    "hypothesis_id": "H8-03B",
    "view": "EXPANSION_RESEARCH",
    "unit": "EPISODE_FIRST_SIGNAL",
    "gate_role_eligible": false,
    "primary": {
      "n_signals": 1,
      "n_episodes": 1,
      "n_symbols": 1,
      "unknown_n": 0,
      "groups": [
        {
          "group": "SIGNAL_ANCHOR",
          "n_signals": 0,
          "n_episodes": 0,
          "n_symbols": 0,
          "outcomes": [
            {
              "horizon": 1,
              "total": 0,
              "complete": 0,
              "incomplete": 0,
              "exclusions": [],
              "positive": 0,
              "positive_denominator": 0,
              "positive_rate": null,
              "mean_return": null,
              "q25_return": null,
              "median_return": null,
              "q75_return": null,
              "mean_mfe": null,
              "median_mfe": null,
              "mean_mae": null,
              "median_mae": null,
              "member_ids": []
            },
            {
              "horizon": 3,
              "total": 0,
              "complete": 0,
              "incomplete": 0,
              "exclusions": [],
              "positive": 0,
              "positive_denominator": 0,
              "positive_rate": null,
              "mean_return": null,
              "q25_return": null,
              "median_return": null,
              "q75_return": null,
              "mean_mfe": null,
              "median_mfe": null,
              "mean_mae": null,
              "median_mae": null,
              "member_ids": []
            },
            {
              "horizon": 5,
              "total": 0,
              "complete": 0,
              "incomplete": 0,
              "exclusions": [],
              "positive": 0,
              "positive_denominator": 0,
              "positive_rate": null,
              "mean_return": null,
              "q25_return": null,
              "median_return": null,
              "q75_return": null,
              "mean_mfe": null,
              "median_mfe": null,
              "mean_mae": null,
              "median_mae": null,
              "member_ids": []
            },
            {
              "horizon": 10,
              "total": 0,
              "complete": 0,
              "incomplete": 0,
              "exclusions": [],
              "positive": 0,
              "positive_denominator": 0,
              "positive_rate": null,
              "mean_return": null,
              "q25_return": null,
              "median_return": null,
              "q75_return": null,
              "mean_mfe": null,
              "median_mfe": null,
              "mean_mae": null,
              "median_mae": null,
              "member_ids": []
            },
            {
              "horizon": 20,
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              "positive_rate": null,
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              "member_ids": []
            }
          ],
          "rates": []
        },
        {
          "group": "CONFIRMATION_ANCHOR",
          "n_signals": 0,
          "n_episodes": 0,
          "n_symbols": 0,
          "outcomes": [
            {
              "horizon": 1,
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              "positive_rate": null,
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              "mean_mfe": null,
              "median_mfe": null,
              "mean_mae": null,
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            },
            {
              "horizon": 3,
              "total": 0,
              "complete": 0,
              "incomplete": 0,
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              "positive_denominator": 0,
              "positive_rate": null,
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              "median_mfe": null,
              "mean_mae": null,
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            },
            {
              "horizon": 5,
              "total": 0,
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              "positive_denominator": 0,
              "positive_rate": null,
              "mean_return": null,
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              "median_return": null,
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              "mean_mfe": null,
              "median_mfe": null,
              "mean_mae": null,
              "median_mae": null,
              "member_ids": []
            },
            {
              "horizon": 10,
              "total": 0,
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              "incomplete": 0,
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              "positive": 0,
              "positive_denominator": 0,
              "positive_rate": null,
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              "median_mfe": null,
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              "median_mae": null,
              "member_ids": []
            },
            {
              "horizon": 20,
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              "median_mae": null,
              "member_ids": []
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          ],
          "rates": []
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      ],
      "correlations": []
    },
    "diagnostics": [],
    "gate": {
      "version": "M8_PROMOTION_GATE_V1",
      "status": "INELIGIBLE_LOOKAHEAD",
      "reasons": [
        "lookahead_conditioned_explanatory_never_gate_evidence"
      ],
      "sample_gate_groups": [],
      "correlations_checked": [],
      "diagnostics_present": [],
      "note": "Mechanical eligibility only; never sets CANDIDATE_FOR_V2."
    }
  },
  "result_sha256": "2ca2c02e931044aeb4f53d0ec711c4b4f2aa0d8a7313d5fe034cadff920d47c1"
}