LLY
- Trade priority
- not ranked
- Data coverage
- 55%
- Setup
- no setup · 2026-10-02
- News
- negative
- Next catalyst
- Earnings in 18 sessions
Trade plan
No trade plan: the strategy has no valid setup for this symbol (trend or relative-strength condition fails (intermediate_trend, relative_strength_20)).
Your portfolio · San
- Profile
- Sanequity 2,000.00 USD · whole shares
- Current holding
- noneno open position in this profile
- Recommended quantity
- —no pending entry to size
- Risk budget
- 10.000.5% of 2,000.00
- Portfolio risk
- 0.00 opencap 2%
- Exposure
- 0 / 3 positionsHealthcare: 0 / 2 · 0.00 of 1,000.00 cap
- Cash impact
- 2,000.00derived from the ledger
- Eligibility
- AVOIDsame as the strategy view
Entry, stop, targets and R:R are strategy-owned and identical for every profile; only this portfolio's quantity, risk, exposure and cash differ. Manage profiles · record a fill
Why this action
Technical
- trend or relative-strength condition fails (intermediate_trend, relative_strength_20)
- RS20 vs SPY -1.0%, vs QQQ -5.9%
Options
- volume 0.96× the 20D baseline (activity_accelerating) · selected contracts only, delayed
News and events
- news context negative (90 canonical items in window)
- earnings 2026-10-29 (18 sessions, finnhub); event risk low
- fda · high · positive: Lilly's Jaypirca (pirtobrutinib), the first-and-only approved non-covalent BTK inhibitor,
- fda · high · positive: Eli Lilly Says FDA Approves Additional Indication For Jaypirca, Non-Covalent BTK Inhibitor
- fda · high · positive: Eli Lilly Weight-Loss Drug Foundayo Meets Primary Endpoint in Phase 3 Trial
- fda · high · negative: Eli Lilly Announces Detailed Results From The Phase 3 ACHIEVE-4 Trial Evaluating The Effi
Market and risk
- regime RISK ON: SPY: trend UP, volatility NORMAL; QQQ: trend UP, volatility NORMAL
Chart
Indicator history is derived from the stored bars with the accepted M3 functions (WORKSTATION_SERIES_V1); the scanner’s persisted values remain authoritative. Reconciliation at the scan session: 8 match.
Trade priority
Not ranked: only valid setups and gated setups enter the trade-priority ranking.
- technical readinessn/a
- structure quality6/10
- relative strength-0/15
- participation4/10
- risk rewardn/a
- news context0/10
- event risk5/5
- urgency1/5
operational attention priority not a return forecast. Missing inputs lower coverage, never the score.
Setup evidence · PRE_BREAKOUT_V1
- Setup state
- NO_SETUP
- Resistance
- 1,185.53
- Distance
- 3.60%
- Close
- 1,142.85
- SMA50
- 1,176.79
- SMA150 / SMA200
- 1,080.72 / 1,073.81
- RSI14
- 43
- EMA20 extension
- -0.6 ATR
- RS20 vs SPY
- -1.0%
- RS20 vs QQQ
- -5.9%
Hard requirements · 4/8 passed
- PASSConfirmed resistanceresistance=1,185.5275 exists eligible=true
- FAILDistance to resistancedistance_pct=3.5999 · resistance=1,185.5275 · close=1,142.85 inclusive_between min=0 · max=3
- FAILClose above SMA50close=1,142.85 · sma50=1,176.7894 > right_operand=sma50
- PASSSMA150 ≥ SMA200sma150=1,080.722 · sma200=1,073.8146 >= right_operand=sma200
- FAILRSI14 bandrsi14=43.0135 inclusive_between min=50 · max=70
- PASSEMA20 extension (ATR)extension_atr=-0.6008 · close=1,142.85 · ema20=1,162.0308 · atr14=31.9264 <= max=1.5
- FAILRS20 vs SPY or QQQSPY=-0.0099 · QQQ=-0.0589 OR > SPY=0 · QQQ=0
- PASSResistance qualitydistinct_touches=2 policy_and_minimum_touches min=2
Supporting evidence · 2/6 passed
- PASSATR compressioncurrent_atr_pct=0.0279 · median_previous_60_atr_pct=0.0321 · ratio=0.8704 < right_operand=median_previous_60_atr_pct
- FAILVolume contractionrecent_volume=2,254,641.4087 · baseline_volume=2,345,696.0291 · ratio=0.9612 < max=0.85
- FAILHigher lowslow_1=1,113.55 · low_2=1,113.2919 · low_3=1,134.41 low_3 > low_2 > low_1 required_pivots=3
- PASSFull MA alignmentsma50=1,176.7894 · sma150=1,080.722 · sma200=1,073.8146 sma50 > sma150 > sma200
- FAILRS20 vs SPY positiveSPY=-0.0099 > min=0
- FAILRS20 vs QQQ positiveQQQ=-0.0589 > min=0
PRE_BREAKOUT_V1 · scan run 414 · session 2026-10-02 · evaluated as of 2026-10-04T13:22:56.327970Z. Supporting evidence never changes the trigger; UNKNOWN is never collapsed into false.
Intelligence timeline
- 2026-10-0311:50 UTCEli Lilly (LLY) scores high on growth and fundamentals with a tightening chart setup, offering a defined risk line for a potential breakout.
- 2026-10-0219:05 UTCEli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) announced today that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved an additional indication for Jaypirca (pirtobrutinib, 100 mg & 50 mg tablets), a non-covalent Bruton tyrosine kinase (BTK) inhibitor, for the treatment of adult patients with previously untreated chronic lymphocytic leukemia or small lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL/SLL) with no known 17p delet
- 2026-10-0215:41 UTCKey Stats for Eli Lilly StockCurrent Price: $1,149. 85Target Price (Mid): ~$2,010Street Target: ~$1,330Potential Total Return: ~75%Annualized IRR: ~14% / yearWhat Happened?Eli Lilly (LLY:NYSE) released Phase 2b results for EloraTZP on September 30.
- 2026-10-0215:09 UTCEli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) announced today that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved an additional indication for Jaypirca (pirtobrutinib, 100 mg & 50 mg tablets), a non-covalent Bruton
- 2026-10-0212:15 UTCEli Lilly's new data show Foundayo's cardiovascular safety and metabolic benefits, while EloraTZP delivers greater weight loss and A1C reduction in a mid-stage study.
- 2026-10-0116:29 UTCEli Lilly's (LLY) new obesity data support a broader drug portfolio beyond tirzepatide, or TZP, UBS
- 2026-10-0116:17 UTCFoghorn Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:FHTX) stock is trading lower on Thursday with a session volume of 9.158 million, compared to the average volume of 377.206 thousand, as per Benzinga Pro data. End of Eli Lilly Collaboration and FHD-909 Development Following a review of Phase 1 data for FHD-909 (LY4050784), Foghorn and Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE:LLY) will not advance the program into clinical developmen
- 2026-10-0116:11 UTCTowards Healthcare projects that the global AI in drug discovery market will grow from $19.89 billion in 2025 to $160.49 billion by 2035, a compound annual growth rate of 23.22%. Active Companies from around the markets with current developments this week include: MindWalk Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: HYFT), AbCellera Biologics Inc. (NASDAQ: ABCL), Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY), Twist Bioscience Co
- 2026-10-0115:10 UTCLilly (LLY) has an impressive earnings surprise history and currently possesses the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely beat in its next quarterly report.
- 2026-10-0113:00 UTCNovo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) faces further pressure in the obesity-drug market after Eli Lilly and Co (NYSE:LLY) reported promising mid-stage data for an experimental treatment that delivered greater weight loss than tirzepatide alone. EloraTZP, a combination of eloralintide and tirzepatide...
- 2026-10-0112:48 UTCLLY and Novo face off at EASD as new data fuels the GLP-1 market, while ETFs offer diversified exposure to weight loss drug growth.
- 2026-10-0111:00 UTCEli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY), the maker of Zepbound (tirzepatide), today announced results from post-hoc analyses of ATTAIN-1 showing that Foundayo was associated with significant reductions in predicted 10-year risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease in adults with obesity or overweight with a weight-related medical problem. Obesity is strongly associated with an increased risk of
- 2026-10-0108:58 UTCEli Lilly's (LLY) weight-loss drug, Foundayo, has met the primary endpoint in a phase 3 trial of adu
- 2026-09-3022:00 UTCEli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY), the maker of Zepbound (tirzepatide), today announced detailed results from the Phase 3 ACHIEVE-4 trial evaluating the efficacy and safety of Foundayo (orforglipron) compared to titrated insulin glargine in adults with type 2 diabetes and obesity or overweight at increased cardiovascular risk. In the trial, which is the largest and longest study of this medicine i
- 2026-09-3020:45 UTCIn the most recent trading session, Eli Lilly (LLY) closed at $1, indicating a -2.33% shift from the previous trading day.
- 2026-09-3020:09 UTCEli Lilly has become one of the market's most closely watched pharma stocks after a very large multi year run, and the question now is whether the cash it can generate in the future really lines up with the price investors are currently paying. With a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) lens available, the focus turns to the stream of cash flows implied by that rally rather than the headlines alone. Over t
- 2026-09-3018:04 UTCEli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY), the maker of Zepbound (tirzepatide), today announced detailed results from the Phase 3 ACHIEVE-4 trial evaluating the efficacy and safety of Foundayo (orforglipron) compared to titrated
- 2026-09-3017:34 UTCNovo's real-world study finds that patients who increase their Ozempic to 2 mg have a lower observed MACE risk than those who switch to Mounjaro.
- 2026-09-3015:31 UTC2026-09-30. The following slide deck was published by Eli Lilly and Company in conjunction with this event.
- 2026-09-3014:59 UTCInvesting.com -- Shares of Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) climbed as much as 2.6% before settling up 0.5% after the pharmaceutical giant reported highly positive Phase 2b trial results for its new obesity and type 2 diabetes drug combination. As Lilly’s stock advanced, shares of primary competitor Novo Nordisk slipped 0.3% on the news.
- 2026-09-3014:15 UTCEli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY), the maker of Zepbound (tirzepatide) and Foundayo (orforglipron), today announced positive results from a Phase 2b trial evaluating the safety and efficacy of EloraTZP, an investigational combination of eloralintide, a selective amylin receptor agonist, and tirzepatide, a dual GIP and GLP-1 receptor agonist, in 367 adults with obesity or overweight and type 2 diab
- 2026-09-3012:03 UTCEli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) today announced that EBGLYSS (lebrikizumab-lbkz) monotherapy met its primary and secondary endpoints at Week 16 in the Phase 3b ADtouch study, showing significant and rapid improvements in hand and foot skin clearance, itch and pain in adults and adolescents with moderate-to-severe hand and foot atopic dermatitis (AD). In first-of-its-kind patient satisfaction dat
- 2026-09-2922:00 UTCEli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY), the maker of Zepbound (tirzepatide) and Foundayo (orforglipron), today announced detailed results from TRIUMPH-2, a Phase 3 trial evaluating the efficacy and safety of retatrutide, an investigational, first-in-class GIP, GLP-1, and glucagon triple hormone receptor agonist, in adults with type 2 diabetes and obesity or overweight. At 80 weeks, all doses of retatru
- 2026-09-2911:00 UTCEli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY), the maker of Foundayo (orforglipron), today announced results from a new analysis showing that Zepbound (tirzepatide) 10 mg and 15 mg, a dual GIP and GLP-1 receptor agonist, delivered greater weight loss than Wegovy HD (semaglutide injection 7.2 mg) in adults with obesity. The findings come from an indirect treatment comparison of Zepbound and Wegovy HD, drawing
- 2026-09-2910:21 UTCLilly’s Foundayo 17.2 mg achieved a 1.5% greater weight loss and a 0.3% greater reduction in A1C than oral semaglutide 25 mg after 52 weeks.
- 2026-09-2907:08 UTCEli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) received FDA Breakthrough Therapy designation for its next-generation KRAS G12C inhibitor olomorasib in advanced pancreatic cancer. The pharmaceutical group launched a global Change the Course program aimed at broadening access to its diabetes and obesity treatments in low and middle income countries. CEO Dave Ricks signaled a shift toward larger acquisitions in new therapeuti
- 2026-09-2907:00 UTCEli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY), the maker of Zepbound (tirzepatide), today announced results from a new analysis showing that Foundayo (orforglipron) 17.2 mg was associated with significantly greater weight loss and better blood sugar control than oral semaglutide 25 mg in adults with type 2 diabetes. The findings are based on an indirect treatment comparison of Foundayo 17.2 mg against oral se
- 2026-09-2220:11 UTC
- 2026-09-1120:16 UTC
- 2026-09-0420:17 UTC
- hidden62 provider-tagged items never name the company and are kept as context only.
canonical items of the last 10 sessions; analyst/industry/macro commentary and social sources excluded from the direction tally; gating uses tier 1-3 HIGH items within 3 (negative) / 2 (unknown direction) sessions
Catalysts and filings
| Event | Date | In | Materiality | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 2026-10-29 | 18 sessions | high | finnhub · Tier 3 · provider |
Options activity
- Session volume
- 798
- 5D baseline
- 1,072
- 20D baseline
- 829
- Volume / 20D
- 0.96x
- Call / put volume
- 534 / 264
- Call / put ratio
- 2.02
- Top-3 contract share
- 42%
- Top expiration
- 2026-10-16 77%
Activity trend · last 30 sessions
| Session | Volume | 5D | 20D | / 20D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | 1,138 | 874 | 701 | 1.62x |
| 2026-09-23 | 1,002 | 928 | 744 | 1.35x |
| 2026-09-24 | 1,378 | 991 | 786 | 1.75x |
| 2026-09-25 | 750 | 1,183 | 836 | 0.90x |
| 2026-09-28 | 798 | 1,072 | 829 | 0.96x |
Call vs put volume
Expiration concentration
Contract concentration
Top contracts · session 2026-09-28
| Contract | Type | Strike | Expiration | DTE | Volume | 5D avg | 20D avg | / 20D | Return | Moneyness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O:LLY261016C01200000 | CALL | 1,200 | 2026-10-16 | 18 | 160 | 409 | 266 | 0.60x | 5.5% | OTM (-1.3%) |
| O:LLY261016C01190000 | CALL | 1,190 | 2026-10-16 | 18 | 123 | 45 | 56 | 2.20x | -7.0% | ATM (-0.4%) |
| O:LLY261016P01180000 | PUT | 1,180 | 2026-10-16 | 18 | 51 | 33 | 58 | 0.88x | -9.5% | ATM (0.4%) |
| O:LLY261016C01205000 | CALL | 1,205 | 2026-10-16 | 18 | 49 | 12 | insufficient history | insufficient history | -20.3% | OTM (-1.7%) |
| O:LLY261009C01200000 | CALL | 1,200 | 2026-10-09 | 11 | 48 | 56 | 23 | 2.05x | 27.9% | OTM (-1.3%) |
| O:LLY261016P01165000 | PUT | 1,165 | 2026-10-16 | 18 | 43 | insufficient history | insufficient history | insufficient history | -0.7% | OTM (1.7%) |
| O:LLY261016C01180000 | CALL | 1,180 | 2026-10-16 | 18 | 41 | 35 | 68 | 0.60x | -2.5% | ATM (0.4%) |
| O:LLY261016P01170000 | PUT | 1,170 | 2026-10-16 | 18 | 30 | 26 | 27 | 1.13x | -11.0% | OTM (1.3%) |
| O:LLY261009P01185000 | PUT | 1,185 | 2026-10-09 | 11 | 18 | 6 | insufficient history | insufficient history | -5.7% | ATM (0.0%) |
| O:LLY261016P01160000 | PUT | 1,160 | 2026-10-16 | 18 | 16 | 48 | 49 | 0.33x | 2.5% | OTM (2.1%) |
| O:LLY261009C01195000 | CALL | 1,195 | 2026-10-09 | 11 | 15 | 12 | insufficient history | insufficient history | -4.6% | OTM (-0.9%) |
| O:LLY261016C01195000 | CALL | 1,195 | 2026-10-16 | 18 | 15 | 12 | insufficient history | insufficient history | -2.2% | OTM (-0.9%) |
| O:LLY261016P01195000 | PUT | 1,195 | 2026-10-16 | 18 | 15 | insufficient history | insufficient history | insufficient history | -12.1% | ITM (-0.9%) |
| O:LLY261016P01200000 | PUT | 1,200 | 2026-10-16 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 20 | 0.73x | -8.5% | ITM (-1.3%) |
| O:LLY261016P01175000 | PUT | 1,175 | 2026-10-16 | 18 | 14 | 12 | insufficient history | insufficient history | 0.1% | OTM (0.8%) |
OPTIONS_SELECTION_M9_V1 selected contracts only · provider capability DELAYED · delayed · Top 15 selected contracts by session volume; 5D/20D averages use strictly prior sessions (M10), INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY is shown, never zero.
M13 observations for this session
- Technical setup present (PRE_BREAKOUT_V1): FALSE
- Technical and options context share a session: FALSE
- Activity above its own 20-session baseline: FALSE
- Activity below its own 20-session baseline: FALSE
- Recent 5-session baseline above 20-session baseline: TRUE
- Recent 5-session baseline below 20-session baseline: FALSE
- Volume concentrated in top 3 contracts: FALSE
- Volume concentrated in one expiration: TRUE
- Calls carry most session volume: TRUE
- Puts carry most session volume: FALSE
- Call and put volume roughly balanced: FALSE
- Enrichment data (snapshot/OI/IV/Greeks) available: FALSE
- Enrichment data unavailable: TRUE
- Real flow data unavailable: TRUE
- Flow events present in replay window: NOT_EVALUABLE
Flow
Flow engine is ready. Trades and Quotes are not available with the current provider capabilities; this area populates automatically from the same M11 engine when real persisted facts exist. Synthetic fixture flow is never shown.
Evidence alerts
| Category | Alert | Previous | Current | Sessions | Workflow | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data quality | Data freshness changed | TECHNICAL=CURRENT_SESSION; OPTIONS_ACTIVITY=STALE; FLOW=MISSING; ACTIVITY_PROVIDER=DELAYED | TECHNICAL=CURRENT_SESSION; OPTIONS_ACTIVITY=DELAYED; FLOW=MISSING; ACTIVITY_PROVIDER=DELAYED | 2026-10-01 → 2026-10-02 | New |
Decision trace
- setup_eligibleFAILNO_SETUP: failed distance_to_resistance, intermediate_trend, relative_strength_20, rsi_bandfailed_conditions=distance_to_resistance, intermediate_trend, relative_strength_20, rsi_band
- finalPASSAVOID
Actions are generated from the configured trading strategy and current available market/intelligence data. They are not guarantees of future performance.