CAT
Industrials · Machinery
845.42
+2.31% · 2026-10-02
Wait
pending buy on trigger
reward/riskportfolio limit
- Trade priority
- #17 · 65.8
- Data coverage
- 100%
- Setup
- no setup · 2026-10-02
- News
- mixed
- Next catalyst
- Earnings in 16 sessions
Trade plan
- Action
- WAITblocked: reward/risk, portfolio limit
- Trigger
- 840.81retracement to breakout level · close 0.6% above the retracement limit
- Entry zone
- 829.16–840.81reference 840.81
- Initial stop
- 791.875.8% · risk 48.94/sh
- Target 1
- 899.07+6.9% · R:R 1.19 (below minimum)
- Target 2
- 945.69+12.5% · R:R 2.14
- Risk per share
- 48.94strategy-owned; the portfolio panel sizes it per profile
- Invalidation
- 805.85a close below 1 ATR under the level invalidates the setup before entry
Level 829.16 (resistance of the PRE_BREAKOUT on 2026-10-01); ATR14 23.31 on 2026-10-02. Stop: 0.1 ATR below the latest confirmed pivot low 794.20 (within 1.5 ATR of the level). Targets: ATR projections 3 / 5 ATR above the level. R:R quality below minimum to T1 (hard minimum 2.0; 3R would be 987.63, T2 supports 2.14R). Targets are structural and are never moved to reach an R multiple.
Record the fill after you enter: add position. The strategy then manages the stop, targets and the next action.
Your portfolio · San
- Profile
- Sanequity 2,000.00 USD · whole shares
- Current holding
- noneno open position in this profile
- Recommended quantity
- too large for this portfolioone 1-share increment at 840.81 exceeds the max position value (0.7136 shares allowed)
- Risk budget
- 10.000.5% of 2,000.00
- Portfolio risk
- 0.00 openremaining 40.00
- Exposure
- 0 / 3 positionsIndustrials: 0 / 2 · 0.00 of 1,000.00 cap
- Cash impact
- 2,000.00derived from the ledger
- Eligibility
- WAITsame as the strategy view
Entry, stop, targets and R:R are strategy-owned and identical for every profile; only this portfolio's quantity, risk, exposure and cash differ. Manage profiles · record a fill
Quality gates
| Gate | Verdict | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Data freshness | PASS | 0 completed session(s) behind the calendar |
| Price | PASS | close 845.42 at or above the 10 floor |
| Market cap | PASS | market cap 379.85B (finnhub, 2026-10-02) |
| Liquidity | PASS | ADV20 1888.8M (STRONG_LIQUIDITY) |
| Sector | PASS | sector Industrials (finnhub_industry) |
| Regime | PASS | regime RISK_ON |
| Earnings | PASS | earnings in 16 sessions (2026-10-27) |
| News / event risk | PASS | news context MIXED |
| Chase protection | PASS | 1.23 ATR above EMA20, session move 0.82 ATR |
| R:R | FAIL | reward/risk to target 1 is 1.19 (below minimum) · reward/risk |
| Portfolio capacity | FAIL | 0 shares: one 1-share increment exceeds the max position value of this portfolio (POSITION_TOO_LARGE_FOR_PROFILE) · portfolio limit |
| Data quality | PASS | current session data, valid technical snapshot, trigger and ATR; critical facts known |
Primary blocker: reward/risk · also portfolio limit
Why this action
Technical
- breakout on 2026-10-02 is extended; buy only on a retracement into 829.16-840.81
- reward/risk 1.19 to target 1 is below the 2 minimum; the target is structural and is not moved
- the position is too large for this portfolio profile (MAX_POSITION_VALUE); the strategy setup itself is unchanged
- RS20 vs SPY 6.1%, vs QQQ 1.2%
Options
- volume 1.98× the 20D baseline (activity_accelerating) · selected contracts only, delayed
News and events
- news context mixed (53 canonical items in window)
- earnings 2026-10-27 (16 sessions, finnhub); event risk low
- m and a · high · unknown: Caterpillar Inc. Enters into Agreement to Acquire Fabick Cat Dealership
- m and a · high · unknown: Caterpillar To Acquire The Fabick Chain Of Equipment Dealers With A Presence Across Four M
- other · low · positive: Caterpillar Trades Above $800. Here's Why It Could Be a $1,000 Stock by 2028.
- other · low · negative: Morgan Stanley calls United Rentals sell-off a buying chance
Market and risk
- regime RISK ON: SPY: trend UP, volatility NORMAL; QQQ: trend UP, volatility NORMAL
- gate reward/risk blocks a new entry
- gate portfolio limit blocks a new entry
- news context mixed
Chart
2026-10-02O 840.80H 858.87L 836.46C 845.42 +2.31%Vol 2,387,281RVOL20 1.03SMA50 823.45SMA150 839.40SMA200 795.10EMA20 816.85RSI14 58.8MACD 1.040 / -4.497 / 5.537ATR14 23.31RS20 SPY 6.1% · QQQ 1.2%
Indicator history is derived from the stored bars with the accepted M3 functions (WORKSTATION_SERIES_V1); the scanner’s persisted values remain authoritative. Reconciliation at the scan session: 8 match.
Trade priority
Rank #17 · priority 65.8 / 100 · coverage 100%
- technical readiness23/30
- structure quality6/10
- relative strength14/15
- participation10/10
- risk reward3/15
- news context4/10
- event risk5/5
- urgency1/5
operational attention priority not a return forecast. Missing inputs lower coverage, never the score.
Setup evidence · PRE_BREAKOUT_V1
- Setup state
- NO_SETUP
- Resistance
- 910.64
- Distance
- 7.16%
- Close
- 845.42
- SMA50
- 823.45
- SMA150 / SMA200
- 839.4 / 795.1
- RSI14
- 58.8
- EMA20 extension
- 1.23 ATR
- RS20 vs SPY
- +6.1%
- RS20 vs QQQ
- +1.2%
Hard requirements · 7/8 passed
- PASSConfirmed resistanceresistance=910.635 exists eligible=true
- FAILDistance to resistancedistance_pct=7.1615 · resistance=910.635 · close=845.42 inclusive_between min=0 · max=3
- PASSClose above SMA50close=845.42 · sma50=823.4484 > right_operand=sma50
- PASSSMA150 ≥ SMA200sma150=839.4026 · sma200=795.0951 >= right_operand=sma200
- PASSRSI14 bandrsi14=58.8206 inclusive_between min=50 · max=70
- PASSEMA20 extension (ATR)extension_atr=1.2257 · close=845.42 · ema20=816.8533 · atr14=23.3069 <= max=1.5
- PASSRS20 vs SPY or QQQSPY=0.0612 · QQQ=0.0121 OR > SPY=0 · QQQ=0
- PASSResistance qualitydistinct_touches=2 policy_and_minimum_touches min=2
Supporting evidence · 4/6 passed
- PASSATR compressioncurrent_atr_pct=0.0276 · median_previous_60_atr_pct=0.0418 · ratio=0.6597 < right_operand=median_previous_60_atr_pct
- FAILVolume contractionrecent_volume=2,199,451.1424 · baseline_volume=2,413,125.2544 · ratio=0.9115 < max=0.85
- PASSHigher lowslow_1=771.39 · low_2=772.861 · low_3=794.2 low_3 > low_2 > low_1 required_pivots=3
- FAILFull MA alignmentsma50=823.4484 · sma150=839.4026 · sma200=795.0951 sma50 > sma150 > sma200
- PASSRS20 vs SPY positiveSPY=0.0612 > min=0
- PASSRS20 vs QQQ positiveQQQ=0.0121 > min=0
PRE_BREAKOUT_V1 · scan run 411 · session 2026-10-02 · evaluated as of 2026-10-04T13:22:36.806703Z. Supporting evidence never changes the trigger; UNKNOWN is never collapsed into false.
Intelligence timeline
- 2026-10-0316:51 UTCThe company is seeing high-margin growth from its ability to provide core power and backup power to AI data centers.
- 2026-10-0219:13 UTCThe bank sees the rental stock’s drop following Caterpillar’s Fabick deal as an overreaction.
- 2026-10-0215:34 UTCCaterpillar is trading higher Friday as easing Fed rate-hike expectations and fresh AI infrastructure developments lift industrial stocks.
- 2026-10-0215:22 UTCKey Stats for Caterpillar StockCurrent Price: $826. 35Target Price (Mid): ~$1,060Street Target: ~$976Potential Total Return: ~29%Annualized IRR: ~6% / yearWhat Happened?Caterpillar (CAT:NYSE) announced two moves on back-to-back days.
- 2026-10-0215:01 UTCAdditionally, Genentech and Avio USA broke ground on separate projects this week including a device fill-finish expansion and a solid rocket motor factory.
- 2026-10-0212:30 UTCAccording to the average brokerage recommendation (ABR), one should invest in Caterpillar (CAT). It is debatable whether this highly sought-after metric is effective because Wall Street analysts' recommendations tend to be overly optimistic. Would it be worth investing in the stock?
- 2026-10-0209:55 UTCCaterpillar (CAT) stock returned 75% over the past twelve months, against 16.0% for the S&P 500. The shares now cost 35.1 times the past year's profit, a ratio known as the P/E. The average P/E at the last twelve quarter-ends, leaving out readings above 100, was 22.0. With the P/E that far above its own average, where would any further gain come from.
- 2026-10-0201:14 UTC
- 2026-10-0120:45 UTCCaterpillar (CAT) closed the most recent trading day at $826.35, moving +1.92% from the previous trading session.
- 2026-10-0118:23 UTCCaterpillar Inc. announced early Wednesday that it plans to invest approximately $1 billion in a new Sanford manufacturing facility expected to create more than 1,950 jobs, revealing the company behind the previously code-named Project Paragon. The new facility will expand manufacturing capacity for Caterpillar’s growing Cat Compact business and increase production of compact track loaders and ...
- 2026-10-0113:24 UTCCAT plans a $1 billion expansion in compact equipment, adding capacity and advancing its Cat Compact strategy.
- 2026-09-3019:47 UTCA new AI lab deal shows how deep Caterpillar’s ties to the data center boom run. Here’s what that means for your portfolio.
- 2026-09-3018:14 UTCCaterpillar (CAT) owners watched the stock rise 2.3% in the last five sessions while the S&P 500 fell 1.2%. If the rest of your money follows the market, Caterpillar's moves on ordinary market days matter more than one good week. So is Caterpillar stock increasing your market risk.
- 2026-09-3017:49 UTCThe Sanford project targets loaders and telehandlers while adding automation, robotics and digital-manufacturing roles.
- 2026-09-3017:29 UTCThe equipment maker plans to build a facility in Sanford to boost production of compact track loaders and telehandlers
- 2026-09-3013:36 UTCCaterpillar expands its dealer footprint with Fabick, building on earlier mining tech and services acquisitions to broaden its growth strategy.
- 2026-09-3013:00 UTCCaterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) intends to invest approximately $1 billion in North Carolina to expand manufacturing capacity for products that support its growing Cat CompactSM business, helping customers gain faster access to the machines they need to solve tough jobsite challenges and build homes, infrastructure and communities.
- 2026-09-3011:30 UTCWhy investing for the long run, especially if you buy certain popular stocks, could reap huge rewards.
- 2026-09-3008:11 UTCCaterpillar has delivered a striking run for shareholders over the past few years, and the stock now trades at a level that puts real weight on what its future cash flows can support. With that kind of price action on the board, the question is how much of the heavy lifting is being done by the company’s actual cash generation rather than pure optimism. Over the last 5 years the stock has returned
- 2026-09-3007:27 UTCKey TakeawaysCaterpillar stock is up 75% over the past year, closing at $827 on September 29. The run rests on Q2 results from August 4: sales of $20.
- 2026-09-2920:02 UTCCaterpillar's shifting revenue mix reveals a company changing its core narrative. Management sounds notably different on its earnings calls today compared to a year ago. Through 2025, leadership kept pointing to one specific sales tool for its construction machines. However, in the fiscal Q2 2026 call, management pivoted to lead with data centers instead. Construction is still about a third of Cat
- 2026-09-2912:31 UTCIt has been years since this industrial powerhouse last split its stock, but that doesn't mean it won't happen again.
- 2026-09-2912:00 UTCRecently, Zacks.com users have been paying close attention to Caterpillar (CAT). This makes it worthwhile to examine what the stock has in store.
- 2026-09-2912:00 UTCCaterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) has entered into an agreement to acquire John Fabick Tractor Company (Fabick), a long-standing Cat® dealer with more than 100 years of trusted service and customer relationships across portions of Missouri, Illinois, the entire state of Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.
- 2026-09-2908:07 UTCThe John Fabick Tractor Company (Fabick), a long-standing Cat® dealer with more than 100 years of trusted service and customer relationships across portions of Missouri, Illinois, the entire state of Wisconsin and the
- 2026-09-2823:00 UTC
- 2026-09-2820:57 UTCKey Stats for CAT Stock52-Week Range: $467 to $1,073Market Cap: around $378 billionStreet Mean Target: around $976Forward 2-Year Revenue Growth (CAGR): around 14%Forward 2-Year EPS Growth (CAGR): around 30%NTM P/E: around 29xLTM Gross Margin: 29. 7%A Growth Curve That Finally Bends UpwardCaterpillar (CAT) has spent the past few years looking like a company outgrowing its own history.
- 2026-09-2818:30 UTCYou want to know what could send Caterpillar (CAT) stock higher again. For one part of Caterpillar, buyers are not the problem. Some customers of its Power & Energy business are already placing orders as far out as 2030. That business—formerly Energy & Transportation, now Power & Energy—was Caterpillar's largest segment by revenue in fiscal 2025, so how fast it fills those orders is critical to th
- 2026-09-2700:11 UTCAtlas Energy Solutions (AESI) drew fresh investor attention after its ProjectCo unit agreed to purchase 283 MW of Caterpillar natural gas generation equipment for AI focused data center projects, supported by cost reimbursement deals with a frontier AI lab. The AI power agreements arrive after a volatile run for Atlas Energy Solutions, with the share price jumping 13.47% in the past day but still
- 2026-09-2604:13 UTCCaterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) has delivered strong growth this year, and that is reflected in the stock, which has jumped by 37% year-to-date. That means that investors are paying a considerable premium to buy a slice of the company. It trades at almost 25.25x forward earnings, compared with a sector median of 22.14x. The stock is […]
- 2026-09-2520:45 UTCCaterpillar (CAT) reached $821.58 at the closing of the latest trading day, reflecting a +2.03% change compared to its last close.
- 2026-09-2518:28 UTCThree operating sites offer evidence, but fleet size and contract economics remain undisclosed.
- 2026-09-2512:40 UTCHere is how Gorman-Rupp (GRC) and Caterpillar (CAT) have performed compared to their sector so far this year.
- 2026-09-0120:32 UTC
- 2026-09-0120:10 UTC
- 2026-08-2723:45 UTC
- hidden20 provider-tagged items never name the company and are kept as context only.
canonical items of the last 10 sessions; analyst/industry/macro commentary and social sources excluded from the direction tally; gating uses tier 1-3 HIGH items within 3 (negative) / 2 (unknown direction) sessions
Catalysts and filings
| Event | Date | In | Materiality | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings (before the open) | 2026-10-27 | 16 sessions | high | finnhub · Tier 3 · provider |
Options activity
- Session volume
- 933
- 5D baseline
- 660
- 20D baseline
- 470
- Volume / 20D
- 1.98x
- Call / put volume
- 493 / 440
- Call / put ratio
- 1.12
- Top-3 contract share
- 38%
- Top expiration
- 2026-10-09 62%
Activity trend · last 25 sessions
| Session | Volume | 5D | 20D | / 20D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | 449 | 572 | 392 | 1.15x |
| 2026-09-28 | 1,311 | 597 | 411 | 3.19x |
| 2026-09-29 | 469 | 658 | 456 | 1.03x |
| 2026-09-30 | 616 | 669 | 464 | 1.33x |
| 2026-10-01 | 933 | 660 | 470 | 1.98x |
Call vs put volume
calls 53%puts 47%
Expiration concentration
Contract concentration
Top contracts · session 2026-10-01
| Contract | Type | Strike | Expiration | DTE | Volume | 5D avg | 20D avg | / 20D | Return | Moneyness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O:CAT261009P00830000 | PUT | 830 | 2026-10-09 | 8 | 145 | 17 | insufficient history | insufficient history | -31.4% | ATM (-0.4%) |
| O:CAT261009C00825000 | CALL | 825 | 2026-10-09 | 8 | 118 | 21 | insufficient history | insufficient history | 93.4% | ATM (0.2%) |
| O:CAT261016P00820000 | PUT | 820 | 2026-10-16 | 15 | 89 | 34 | 34 | 2.65x | -29.1% | OTM (0.8%) |
| O:CAT261016C00840000 | CALL | 840 | 2026-10-16 | 15 | 54 | 80 | 63 | 0.85x | 45.8% | OTM (-1.6%) |
| O:CAT261009P00820000 | PUT | 820 | 2026-10-09 | 8 | 51 | 11 | insufficient history | insufficient history | -36.2% | OTM (0.8%) |
| O:CAT261009P00825000 | PUT | 825 | 2026-10-09 | 8 | 43 | 7 | insufficient history | insufficient history | -0.3% | ATM (0.2%) |
| O:CAT261009C00830000 | CALL | 830 | 2026-10-09 | 8 | 42 | 19 | 9 | 4.62x | 105.0% | ATM (-0.4%) |
| O:CAT261016C00850000 | CALL | 850 | 2026-10-16 | 15 | 38 | 50 | 57 | 0.67x | 60.1% | OTM (-2.8%) |
| O:CAT261016C00830000 | CALL | 830 | 2026-10-16 | 15 | 28 | 42 | 43 | 0.65x | 32.4% | ATM (-0.4%) |
| O:CAT261016C00825000 | CALL | 825 | 2026-10-16 | 15 | 27 | 10 | insufficient history | insufficient history | 43.3% | ATM (0.2%) |
| O:CAT261016P00850000 | PUT | 850 | 2026-10-16 | 15 | 25 | 14 | 27 | 0.93x | -24.9% | ITM (-2.8%) |
| O:CAT261009C00840000 | CALL | 840 | 2026-10-09 | 8 | 24 | 12 | insufficient history | insufficient history | 67.4% | OTM (-1.6%) |
| O:CAT261016C00822500 | CALL | 822.5 | 2026-10-16 | 15 | 24 | 13 | insufficient history | insufficient history | 58.1% | ATM (0.5%) |
| O:CAT261009C00817500 | CALL | 817.5 | 2026-10-09 | 8 | 21 | 14 | insufficient history | insufficient history | 33.2% | ITM (1.1%) |
| O:CAT261009P00815000 | PUT | 815 | 2026-10-09 | 8 | 19 | 9 | insufficient history | insufficient history | -47.0% | OTM (1.4%) |
OPTIONS_SELECTION_M9_V1 selected contracts only · provider capability DELAYED · delayed · Top 15 selected contracts by session volume; 5D/20D averages use strictly prior sessions (M10), INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY is shown, never zero.
M13 observations for this session
- Technical setup present (PRE_BREAKOUT_V1): FALSE
- Technical and options context share a session: FALSE
- Activity above its own 20-session baseline: TRUE
- Activity below its own 20-session baseline: FALSE
- Recent 5-session baseline above 20-session baseline: TRUE
- Recent 5-session baseline below 20-session baseline: FALSE
- Volume concentrated in top 3 contracts: FALSE
- Volume concentrated in one expiration: TRUE
- Calls carry most session volume: FALSE
- Puts carry most session volume: FALSE
- Call and put volume roughly balanced: TRUE
- Enrichment data (snapshot/OI/IV/Greeks) available: FALSE
- Enrichment data unavailable: TRUE
- Real flow data unavailable: TRUE
- Flow events present in replay window: NOT_EVALUABLE
Flow
Flow events—
Clusters—
Sweep candidates—
Block candidates—
Aggressor candidates—
Premium coverage—
Flow engine is ready. Trades and Quotes are not available with the current provider capabilities; this area populates automatically from the same M11 engine when real persisted facts exist. Synthetic fixture flow is never shown.
Evidence alerts
| Category | Alert | Previous | Current | Sessions | Workflow | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Disappeared | Technical setup disappeared | yes | no | 2026-10-01 → 2026-10-02 | New | |
| Changed | Options activity vs 20D baseline rose | 1.33 | 1.98 | 2026-09-30 → 2026-10-01 | New | |
| Changed | Call / put volume mix changed | 0.73 | 0.53 | 2026-09-30 → 2026-10-01 | New |
Decision trace
- setup_eligiblePASSPRE_BREAKOUT on 2026-10-01; close above its resistance 829.15 on 2026-10-02
- trigger_statePASSTRIGGERED but EXTENDED: the close is beyond the entry zone or the EMA20 extension limit; entry only on a retracement into the zoneclose=845.42 · entry_zone_high=840.81 · extension_atr=1.23 | threshold breakout_max_extension_atr=2
- data_freshnessPASS0 completed session(s) behind the calendarsessions_behind=0 | threshold max_sessions_behind=1
- price_gatePASSclose 845.42 at or above the 10 floorclose=845.42 | threshold min_price=10
- market_cap_gatePASSmarket cap 379.85B (finnhub, 2026-10-02)market_cap_usd=379852314995.81 | threshold min_market_cap_usd=1000000000
- liquidity_gatePASSADV20 1888.8M (STRONG_LIQUIDITY)adv_dollar=1888750235.96 · strong_liquidity=true | threshold min_adv_dollar=25000000, strong_adv_dollar=50000000
- sector_gatePASSsector Industrials (finnhub_industry)
- market_regime_gatePASSregime RISK_ONregime=RISK_ON · risk_multiplier=1
- event_risk_gatePASSearnings in 16 sessions (2026-10-27)earnings_sessions_away=16 | threshold earnings_block_sessions=5
- news_gatePASSnews context MIXED
- chase_gatePASS1.23 ATR above EMA20, session move 0.82 ATRextension_atr=1.23 | threshold breakout_max_extension_atr=2
- risk_rewardFAILreward/risk to target 1 is 1.19 (below minimum)reward_risk_1=1.19 · reward_risk_2=2.14 | threshold min_reward_risk_1=2
- portfolio_gateFAIL0 shares: one 1-share increment exceeds the max position value of this portfolio (POSITION_TOO_LARGE_FOR_PROFILE)binding_constraint=MAX_POSITION_VALUE · size_status=POSITION_TOO_LARGE_FOR_PROFILE · share_increment=1
- data_qualityPASScurrent session data, valid technical snapshot, trigger and ATR; critical facts known
- finalPASSWAIT (blocked by REWARD_RISK, PORTFOLIO_LIMIT; primary REWARD_RISK)
Snapshot history: 2026-10-02 WAIT · 2026-10-01 BUY_ON_TRIGGER
Actions are generated from the configured trading strategy and current available market/intelligence data. They are not guarantees of future performance.