LITE
- Trade priority
- #10 · 73
- Data coverage
- 100%
- Setup
- no setup · 2026-10-02
- News
- positive w/ risks
- Next catalyst
- Earnings in 20 sessions
Trade plan
- Action
- WAITblocked: too extended, reward/risk, portfolio limit
- Trigger
- 1033.17retracement to breakout level · close 4.8% above the retracement limit
- Entry zone
- 1000.06–1033.17reference 1033.17
- Initial stop
- 933.839.6% · risk 99.34/sh
- Target 1
- 1198.73+16.0% · R:R 1.67 (below minimum)
- Target 2
- 1331.19+28.9% · R:R 3.00
- Risk per share
- 99.34strategy-owned; the portfolio panel sizes it per profile
- Invalidation
- 933.83a close below 1 ATR under the level invalidates the setup before entry
Level 1000.06 (resistance of the PRE_BREAKOUT on 2026-09-30); ATR14 66.23 on 2026-10-02. Stop: 1 ATR below the breakout level 1000.06. Targets: ATR projections 3 / 5 ATR above the level. R:R quality below minimum to T1 (hard minimum 2.0; 3R would be 1331.19, T2 supports 3.00R). Targets are structural and are never moved to reach an R multiple.
Record the fill after you enter: add position. The strategy then manages the stop, targets and the next action.
Your portfolio · San
- Profile
- Sanequity 2,000.00 USD · whole shares
- Current holding
- noneno open position in this profile
- Recommended quantity
- too large for this portfolioone 1-share increment at 1033.17 exceeds the max position value (0.5807 shares allowed)
- Risk budget
- 10.000.5% of 2,000.00
- Portfolio risk
- 0.00 openremaining 40.00
- Exposure
- 0 / 3 positionsTechnology: 0 / 2 · 0.00 of 1,000.00 cap
- Cash impact
- 2,000.00derived from the ledger
- Eligibility
- WAITsame as the strategy view
Entry, stop, targets and R:R are strategy-owned and identical for every profile; only this portfolio's quantity, risk, exposure and cash differ. Manage profiles · record a fill
Quality gates
| Gate | Verdict | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Data freshness | PASS | 0 completed session(s) behind the calendar |
| Price | PASS | close 1085.42 at or above the 10 floor |
| Market cap | PASS | market cap 93.81B (finnhub, 2026-10-02) |
| Liquidity | PASS | ADV20 4643.9M (STRONG_LIQUIDITY) |
| Sector | PASS | sector Technology (finnhub_industry) |
| Regime | PASS | regime RISK_ON |
| Earnings | PASS | earnings in 20 sessions (2026-11-02) |
| News / event risk | PASS | news context POSITIVE_WITH_RISKS |
| Chase protection | FAIL | close is 2.04 ATR above EMA20 (max 2) · too extended |
| R:R | FAIL | reward/risk to target 1 is 1.67 (below minimum) · reward/risk |
| Portfolio capacity | FAIL | 0 shares: one 1-share increment exceeds the max position value of this portfolio (POSITION_TOO_LARGE_FOR_PROFILE) · portfolio limit |
| Data quality | PASS | current session data, valid technical snapshot, trigger and ATR; critical facts known |
Primary blocker: too extended · also reward/risk, portfolio limit
Why this action
Technical
- breakout on 2026-10-01 is extended; buy only on a retracement into 1000.06-1033.17
- close is 2.04 ATR above EMA20: too extended to enter
- reward/risk 1.67 to target 1 is below the 2 minimum; the target is structural and is not moved
- the position is too large for this portfolio profile (MAX_POSITION_VALUE); the strategy setup itself is unchanged
- RS20 vs SPY 28.5%, vs QQQ 23.6%
Options
- volume 1.62× the 20D baseline (activity_accelerating) · selected contracts only, delayed
News and events
- news context positive w/ risks (53 canonical items in window)
- earnings 2026-11-02 (20 sessions, finnhub); event risk low
- earnings · high · positive: Lumentum's $40 EPS Bet Changes Everything
- other · low · positive: Lumentum: The Rally May Not Be Over
- other · low · positive: Meet AI’s New “Structural Winners”: Coherent Soars 11%, Lumentum Up 8%
- other · low · unknown: Lumentum Leads As Technology And Semiconductors Drive Order Flow Activity
Market and risk
- regime RISK ON: SPY: trend UP, volatility NORMAL; QQQ: trend UP, volatility NORMAL
- gate too extended blocks a new entry
- gate reward/risk blocks a new entry
- gate portfolio limit blocks a new entry
- news context positive with risks
Chart
Indicator history is derived from the stored bars with the accepted M3 functions (WORKSTATION_SERIES_V1); the scanner’s persisted values remain authoritative. Reconciliation at the scan session: 8 match.
Trade priority
Rank #10 · priority 73 / 100 · coverage 100%
- technical readiness21/30
- structure quality10/10
- relative strength15/15
- participation10/10
- risk reward3/15
- news context6/10
- event risk5/5
- urgency3/5
operational attention priority not a return forecast. Missing inputs lower coverage, never the score.
Setup evidence · PRE_BREAKOUT_V1
- Setup state
- NO_SETUP
- Resistance
- 1,000.06
- Distance
- -8.54%
- Close
- 1,085.42
- SMA50
- 879.03
- SMA150 / SMA200
- 844.37 / 745.43
- RSI14
- 66.7
- EMA20 extension
- 2.04 ATR
- RS20 vs SPY
- +28.5%
- RS20 vs QQQ
- +23.6%
Hard requirements · 6/8 passed
- PASSConfirmed resistanceresistance=1,000.0583 exists eligible=true
- FAILDistance to resistancedistance_pct=-8.5357 · resistance=1,000.0583 · close=1,085.42 inclusive_between min=0 · max=3
- PASSClose above SMA50close=1,085.42 · sma50=879.0255 > right_operand=sma50
- PASSSMA150 ≥ SMA200sma150=844.3668 · sma200=745.428 >= right_operand=sma200
- PASSRSI14 bandrsi14=66.6758 inclusive_between min=50 · max=70
- FAILEMA20 extension (ATR)extension_atr=2.0432 · close=1,085.42 · ema20=950.0933 · atr14=66.2332 <= max=1.5
- PASSRS20 vs SPY or QQQSPY=0.2855 · QQQ=0.2365 OR > SPY=0 · QQQ=0
- PASSResistance qualitydistinct_touches=3 policy_and_minimum_touches min=2
Supporting evidence · 5/6 passed
- PASSATR compressioncurrent_atr_pct=0.061 · median_previous_60_atr_pct=0.0868 · ratio=0.7032 < right_operand=median_previous_60_atr_pct
- FAILVolume contractionrecent_volume=5,357,268.4381 · baseline_volume=4,390,367.2134 · ratio=1.2202 < max=0.85
- PASSHigher lowslow_1=818.89 · low_2=832.11 · low_3=881.23 low_3 > low_2 > low_1 required_pivots=3
- PASSFull MA alignmentsma50=879.0255 · sma150=844.3668 · sma200=745.428 sma50 > sma150 > sma200
- PASSRS20 vs SPY positiveSPY=0.2855 > min=0
- PASSRS20 vs QQQ positiveQQQ=0.2365 > min=0
PRE_BREAKOUT_V1 · scan run 414 · session 2026-10-02 · evaluated as of 2026-10-04T13:22:56.327970Z. Supporting evidence never changes the trigger; UNKNOWN is never collapsed into false.
Intelligence timeline
- 2026-10-0311:39 UTCLumentum's Q4 revenue surged 109% to $1.006 billion, while gross margin reached 50.4%. Click to read more on this bullish thesis for LITE.
- 2026-10-0119:18 UTCKey TakeawaysLumentum shares rose about 8% and Coherent about 11% after Bernstein started coverage of both at Outperform. Bernstein said networking and optical suppliers could be “structural winners” within AI infrastructure.
- 2026-10-0115:15 UTCSource: TradePulse | October 1, 2026 as of 2:00PM EST Market Overview Recent aggregate flow data reflects continued participation across several key market segments, with technology, semiconductors, aerospace,
- 2026-10-0113:42 UTCLumentum and Coherent stocks surge as potential U.S. restrictions on Chinese optical transceivers spark supply tailwinds.
- 2026-10-0110:00 UTCSAN JOSE, Calif., October 01, 2026--Lumentum, a global leader in optical and photonic technology, today announced its speaker lineup at the 2026 Open Compute Project (OCP) Global Summit, themed "Scaling Innovation for the AI Era." The event will take place from October 12 – 15 at the San Jose McEnery Convention Center.
- 2026-09-3017:21 UTCLumentum is a Buy due to component expertise, customer commitments, and visible operating leverage in advanced optical products. Read more on LITE stock here.
- 2026-09-3012:02 UTCRising Treasury yields are rattling markets heading into the final trading day of Q3, and Wall Street analysts are making bold moves on a wide range of stocks from big-box retail to AI infrastructure. Find out who got cut and who got a fresh vote of confidence.
- 2026-09-3006:48 UTCBernstein analyst Daniel Zhu initiates coverage on Lumentum Holdings (NASDAQ:LITE) with a Outperform rating and announces Price Target of $1220.
- 2026-09-2916:11 UTCShares of Lumentum advance alongside broader fiber optic connectivity equities.
- 2026-09-2915:47 UTCLumentum's AI-driven optical demand, strong earnings growth, and expanding data center opportunities set it apart from Navitas Semiconductor.
- 2026-09-2915:30 UTCNVIDIA's new AI safety platform could boost demand for inference infrastructure, with analyst Luke Lango pointing to Marvell, Arm Holdings and Lumentum as key beneficiaries.
- 2026-09-2915:00 UTCOptics stocks cratered after Citi dropped a major optical switching forecast, then buyers rushed back in less than 24 hours. What snapped sentiment around so fast, and how durable is the rebound?
- 2026-09-2820:12 UTCCorning has been on a powerful multi year run, and after a mix of AI focused partnerships and a recent equity offering, the real question is how firmly its current share price rests on the cash flows the business can generate over time. With the stock now in a very different place than it was a few years ago, investors are increasingly asking whether the recent price action still lines up with wha
- 2026-09-2820:08 UTC
- 2026-09-2811:30 UTCCitigroup analyst Papa Sylla maintains Lumentum Holdings (NASDAQ:LITE) with a Buy and raises the price target from $1200 to $1400.
- 2026-09-2513:58 UTCLumentum Holdings Inc.'s AI upside expands into OCS and lasers as Q4 revenue jumps 109% and margins hit 50.4%. Click for this LITE stock update.
- 2026-09-2511:53 UTCThe artificial-intelligence rally looked set to restart on Friday, as a drop in bond yields gave risk assets a boost. Glassmaker Corning, optical networking companies Coherent and Lumentum, server maker Dell, and flash-memory product supplier Sandisk were all rallying ahead of the opening bell.
- 2026-09-2509:09 UTCAI infrastructure demand continues to strengthen the optical networking growth story, according to Josh Brown.
- 2026-09-2505:57 UTCLAZR ETF's photonics/AI infrastructure theme is strong, but high LITE valuation and risky Anthropic stake add beta. Learn more on LAZR here.
- 2026-09-2415:23 UTCAAOI is riding on AI-driven data-center demand as 800G sales surge, 1.6T orders top $200M, and manufacturing capacity expands to support growth.
- 2026-09-2120:01 UTC
- 2026-09-1420:07 UTC
- 2026-09-0820:08 UTC
- 2026-08-3120:04 UTC
- 2026-08-2801:54 UTC
- 2026-08-2801:51 UTC
- 2026-08-2801:50 UTC
- hidden32 provider-tagged items never name the company and are kept as context only.
canonical items of the last 10 sessions; analyst/industry/macro commentary and social sources excluded from the direction tally; gating uses tier 1-3 HIGH items within 3 (negative) / 2 (unknown direction) sessions
Catalysts and filings
| Event | Date | In | Materiality | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings (after the close) | 2026-11-02 | 20 sessions | high | finnhub · Tier 3 · provider |
Options activity
- Session volume
- 2,023
- 5D baseline
- 2,086
- 20D baseline
- 1,246
- Volume / 20D
- 1.62x
- Call / put volume
- 1,588 / 435
- Call / put ratio
- 3.65
- Top-3 contract share
- 25%
- Top expiration
- 2026-10-09 51%
Activity trend · last 32 sessions
| Session | Volume | 5D | 20D | / 20D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | 1,538 | 1,532 | 854 | 1.80x |
| 2026-09-25 | 2,434 | 1,563 | 920 | 2.65x |
| 2026-09-28 | 1,883 | 1,850 | 996 | 1.89x |
| 2026-09-29 | 3,507 | 1,893 | 1,079 | 3.25x |
| 2026-09-30 | 2,023 | 2,086 | 1,246 | 1.62x |
Call vs put volume
Expiration concentration
Contract concentration
Top contracts · session 2026-09-30
| Contract | Type | Strike | Expiration | DTE | Volume | 5D avg | 20D avg | / 20D | Return | Moneyness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O:LITE261016C01000000 | CALL | 1,000 | 2026-10-16 | 16 | 182 | 223 | 151 | 1.21x | -22.4% | OTM (-2.9%) |
| O:LITE261009C00970000 | CALL | 970 | 2026-10-09 | 9 | 162 | 34 | insufficient history | insufficient history | -24.7% | ATM (0.1%) |
| O:LITE261016C00950000 | CALL | 950 | 2026-10-16 | 16 | 159 | 59 | 43 | 3.70x | -20.4% | ITM (2.2%) |
| O:LITE261009C00965000 | CALL | 965 | 2026-10-09 | 9 | 157 | 42 | insufficient history | insufficient history | 10.5% | ITM (0.6%) |
| O:LITE261009C00980000 | CALL | 980 | 2026-10-09 | 9 | 153 | 32 | insufficient history | insufficient history | -22.5% | OTM (-0.9%) |
| O:LITE261009C00950000 | CALL | 950 | 2026-10-09 | 9 | 150 | 57 | insufficient history | insufficient history | -10.0% | ITM (2.2%) |
| O:LITE261016C00960000 | CALL | 960 | 2026-10-16 | 16 | 97 | 41 | 27 | 3.63x | -27.4% | ITM (1.2%) |
| O:LITE261016C00955000 | CALL | 955 | 2026-10-16 | 16 | 80 | 32 | insufficient history | insufficient history | 5.2% | ITM (1.7%) |
| O:LITE261009C00975000 | CALL | 975 | 2026-10-09 | 9 | 74 | 40 | insufficient history | insufficient history | -13.8% | ATM (-0.4%) |
| O:LITE261009C00955000 | CALL | 955 | 2026-10-09 | 9 | 71 | 55 | insufficient history | insufficient history | 2.1% | ITM (1.7%) |
| O:LITE261016C00965000 | CALL | 965 | 2026-10-16 | 16 | 64 | 23 | insufficient history | insufficient history | 5.5% | ITM (0.6%) |
| O:LITE261016P00980000 | PUT | 980 | 2026-10-16 | 16 | 64 | 33 | insufficient history | insufficient history | 21.7% | ITM (-0.9%) |
| O:LITE261009C00960000 | CALL | 960 | 2026-10-09 | 9 | 61 | 51 | insufficient history | insufficient history | -31.1% | ITM (1.2%) |
| O:LITE261016P00960000 | PUT | 960 | 2026-10-16 | 16 | 53 | 72 | 38 | 1.40x | 15.3% | OTM (1.2%) |
| O:LITE261009P00950000 | PUT | 950 | 2026-10-09 | 9 | 41 | 29 | insufficient history | insufficient history | 34.8% | OTM (2.2%) |
OPTIONS_SELECTION_M9_V1 selected contracts only · provider capability DELAYED · delayed · Top 15 selected contracts by session volume; 5D/20D averages use strictly prior sessions (M10), INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY is shown, never zero.
M13 observations for this session
- Technical setup present (PRE_BREAKOUT_V1): FALSE
- Technical and options context share a session: FALSE
- Activity above its own 20-session baseline: TRUE
- Activity below its own 20-session baseline: FALSE
- Recent 5-session baseline above 20-session baseline: TRUE
- Recent 5-session baseline below 20-session baseline: FALSE
- Volume concentrated in top 3 contracts: FALSE
- Volume concentrated in one expiration: FALSE
- Calls carry most session volume: TRUE
- Puts carry most session volume: FALSE
- Call and put volume roughly balanced: FALSE
- Enrichment data (snapshot/OI/IV/Greeks) available: FALSE
- Enrichment data unavailable: TRUE
- Real flow data unavailable: TRUE
- Flow events present in replay window: NOT_EVALUABLE
Flow
Flow engine is ready. Trades and Quotes are not available with the current provider capabilities; this area populates automatically from the same M11 engine when real persisted facts exist. Synthetic fixture flow is never shown.
Evidence alerts
| Category | Alert | Previous | Current | Sessions | Workflow | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Changed | Distance to resistance narrowed | -4.57 | -8.54 | 2026-10-01 → 2026-10-02 | New | |
| Fading | Options activity vs 20D baseline fell | 3.25 | 1.62 | 2026-09-29 → 2026-09-30 | New | |
| Changed | Call / put volume mix changed | 0.58 | 0.78 | 2026-09-29 → 2026-09-30 | New |
Decision trace
- setup_eligiblePASSPRE_BREAKOUT on 2026-09-30; close above its resistance 1000.06 on 2026-10-01
- trigger_statePASSTRIGGERED but EXTENDED: the close is beyond the entry zone or the EMA20 extension limit; entry only on a retracement into the zoneclose=1085.42 · entry_zone_high=1033.17 · extension_atr=2.04 | threshold breakout_max_extension_atr=2
- data_freshnessPASS0 completed session(s) behind the calendarsessions_behind=0 | threshold max_sessions_behind=1
- price_gatePASSclose 1085.42 at or above the 10 floorclose=1085.42 | threshold min_price=10
- market_cap_gatePASSmarket cap 93.81B (finnhub, 2026-10-02)market_cap_usd=93806463751.8 | threshold min_market_cap_usd=1000000000
- liquidity_gatePASSADV20 4643.9M (STRONG_LIQUIDITY)adv_dollar=4643876326.45 · strong_liquidity=true | threshold min_adv_dollar=25000000, strong_adv_dollar=50000000
- sector_gatePASSsector Technology (finnhub_industry)
- market_regime_gatePASSregime RISK_ONregime=RISK_ON · risk_multiplier=1
- event_risk_gatePASSearnings in 20 sessions (2026-11-02)earnings_sessions_away=20 | threshold earnings_block_sessions=5
- news_gatePASSnews context POSITIVE_WITH_RISKS
- chase_gateFAILclose is 2.04 ATR above EMA20 (max 2)extension_atr=2.04 | threshold breakout_max_extension_atr=2
- risk_rewardFAILreward/risk to target 1 is 1.67 (below minimum)reward_risk_1=1.67 · reward_risk_2=3 | threshold min_reward_risk_1=2
- portfolio_gateFAIL0 shares: one 1-share increment exceeds the max position value of this portfolio (POSITION_TOO_LARGE_FOR_PROFILE)binding_constraint=MAX_POSITION_VALUE · size_status=POSITION_TOO_LARGE_FOR_PROFILE · share_increment=1
- data_qualityPASScurrent session data, valid technical snapshot, trigger and ATR; critical facts known
- finalPASSWAIT (blocked by CHASE_EXTENDED, REWARD_RISK, PORTFOLIO_LIMIT; primary CHASE_EXTENDED)
Snapshot history: 2026-10-02 WAIT · 2026-10-01 BUY_ON_TRIGGER · 2026-09-30 BUY_ON_TRIGGER
Actions are generated from the configured trading strategy and current available market/intelligence data. They are not guarantees of future performance.