MPWR

Technology · Semiconductors

1439.73

+5.79% · 2026-10-02

Wait

pending buy on trigger

too extendedreward/riskportfolio limit

Trade priority: #19 · 59

Data coverage: 100%

Setup: no setup · 2026-10-02

News: mixed

Next catalyst: Earnings in 17 sessions

Trade plan

PRE_BREAKOUT_SWING_V1_1 · valid until close of 2026-10-05, a material event, or strategy invalidation · shared by every portfolio profile

Action: WAITblocked: too extended, reward/risk, portfolio limit
Trigger: 1415.35retracement to breakout level · close 1.7% above the retracement limit
Entry zone: 1387.99–1415.35reference 1415.35
Initial stop: 1333.285.8% · risk 82.07/sh
Target 1: 1552.13+9.7% · R:R 1.67 (below minimum)
Target 2: 1661.56+17.4% · R:R 3.00
Risk per share: 82.07strategy-owned; the portfolio panel sizes it per profile
Invalidation: 1333.28a close below 1 ATR under the level invalidates the setup before entry

Level 1387.99 (resistance of the PRE_BREAKOUT on 2026-10-01); ATR14 54.71 on 2026-10-02. Stop: 1 ATR below the breakout level 1387.99. Targets: ATR projections 3 / 5 ATR above the level. R:R quality below minimum to T1 (hard minimum 2.0; 3R would be 1661.56, T2 supports 3.00R). Targets are structural and are never moved to reach an R multiple.

Record the fill after you enter: add position. The strategy then manages the stop, targets and the next action.

Your portfolio · San

profile-specific: quantity, risk budget, exposure, cash impact

Profile: Sanequity 2,000.00 USD · whole shares
Current holding: noneno open position in this profile
Recommended quantity: too large for this portfolioone 1-share increment at 1415.35 exceeds the max position value (0.4239 shares allowed)
Risk budget: 10.000.5% of 2,000.00
Portfolio risk: 0.00 openremaining 40.00
Exposure: 0 / 3 positionsTechnology: 0 / 2 · 0.00 of 1,000.00 cap
Cash impact: 2,000.00derived from the ledger
Eligibility: WAITsame as the strategy view

Entry, stop, targets and R:R are strategy-owned and identical for every profile; only this portfolio's quantity, risk, exposure and cash differ. Manage profiles · record a fill

Quality gates

hard entry gates of the strategy · PASS / FAIL / UNKNOWN

Gate	Verdict	Detail
Data freshness	PASS	0 completed session(s) behind the calendar
Price	PASS	close 1439.73 at or above the 10 floor
Market cap	PASS	market cap 66.88B (finnhub, 2026-10-02)
Liquidity	PASS	ADV20 937.0M (STRONG_LIQUIDITY)
Sector	PASS	sector Technology (finnhub_industry)
Regime	PASS	regime RISK_ON
Earnings	PASS	earnings in 17 sessions (2026-10-28)
News / event risk	PASS	news context MIXED
Chase protection	FAIL	close is 2.31 ATR above EMA20 (max 2) · too extended
R:R	FAIL	reward/risk to target 1 is 1.67 (below minimum) · reward/risk
Portfolio capacity	FAIL	0 shares: one 1-share increment exceeds the max position value of this portfolio (POSITION_TOO_LARGE_FOR_PROFILE) · portfolio limit
Data quality	PASS	current session data, valid technical snapshot, trigger and ATR; critical facts known

Primary blocker: too extended · also reward/risk, portfolio limit

Why this action

Technical

breakout on 2026-10-02 is extended; buy only on a retracement into 1387.99-1415.35
close is 2.31 ATR above EMA20: too extended to enter
reward/risk 1.67 to target 1 is below the 2 minimum; the target is structural and is not moved
the position is too large for this portfolio profile (MAX_POSITION_VALUE); the strategy setup itself is unchanged
RS20 vs SPY 19.1%, vs QQQ 14.2%

Options

volume 0.59× the 20D baseline (activity_fading) · selected contracts only, delayed

News and events

news context mixed (17 canonical items in window)
earnings 2026-10-28 (17 sessions, finnhub); event risk low
other · low · negative: Impinj, Power Integrations, Kulicke and Soffa, Microchip Technology, and Monolithic Power
other · low · positive: 2026 BayAreaCISO ORBIE Awards Recognize Bay Area’s Top Security Executives
insider · low · unknown: MONOLITHIC POWER SYSTEMS, INC.: 4 filed
other · low · positive: Monolithic Power (MPWR) is a Great Momentum Stock: Should You Buy?

Market and risk

regime RISK ON: SPY: trend UP, volatility NORMAL; QQQ: trend UP, volatility NORMAL
gate too extended blocks a new entry
gate reward/risk blocks a new entry
gate portfolio limit blocks a new entry
news context mixed

Chart

252 sessions · EMA20 / SMA50 / SMA150 / SMA200 default · strategy levels drawn when a plan exists

2026-10-02O 1406.00H 1455.99L 1393.13C 1439.73 +5.79%Vol 705,805RVOL20 0.98SMA50 1304.53SMA150 1355.45SMA200 1283.31EMA20 1313.24RSI14 66.3MACD 29.686 / 8.732 / 20.954ATR14 54.71RS20 SPY 19.1% · QQQ 14.2%

Indicator history is derived from the stored bars with the accepted M3 functions (WORKSTATION_SERIES_V1); the scanner’s persisted values remain authoritative. Reconciliation at the scan session: 8 match.

Trade priority

operational attention ranking, not a forecast

Rank #19 · priority 59 / 100 · coverage 100%

technical readiness21/30
structure quality6/10
relative strength15/15
participation4/10
risk reward3/15
news context4/10
event risk5/5
urgency1/5

operational attention priority not a return forecast. Missing inputs lower coverage, never the score.

Setup evidence · PRE_BREAKOUT_V1

Setup state: NO_SETUP
Resistance: 1,624.78
Distance: 11.39%
Close: 1,439.73
SMA50: 1,304.53
SMA150 / SMA200: 1,355.45 / 1,283.31
RSI14: 66.3
EMA20 extension: 2.31 ATR
RS20 vs SPY: +19.1%
RS20 vs QQQ: +14.2%

Hard requirements · 6/8 passed

PASS
Confirmed resistance
resistance=1,624.775 exists eligible=true
FAIL
Distance to resistance
distance_pct=11.389 · resistance=1,624.775 · close=1,439.73 inclusive_between min=0 · max=3
PASS
Close above SMA50
close=1,439.73 · sma50=1,304.5331 > right_operand=sma50
PASS
SMA150 ≥ SMA200
sma150=1,355.4513 · sma200=1,283.3101 >= right_operand=sma200
PASS
RSI14 band
rsi14=66.3296 inclusive_between min=50 · max=70
FAIL
EMA20 extension (ATR)
extension_atr=2.3119 · close=1,439.73 · ema20=1,313.2447 · atr14=54.7102 <= max=1.5
PASS
RS20 vs SPY or QQQ
SPY=0.1908 · QQQ=0.1418 OR > SPY=0 · QQQ=0
PASS
Resistance quality
distinct_touches=2 policy_and_minimum_touches min=2

Supporting evidence · 4/6 passed

PASS
ATR compression
current_atr_pct=0.038 · median_previous_60_atr_pct=0.0584 · ratio=0.6512 < right_operand=median_previous_60_atr_pct
PASS
Volume contraction
recent_volume=553,640.3992 · baseline_volume=748,040.236 · ratio=0.7401 < max=0.85
FAIL
Higher lows
low_1=1,255.56 · low_2=1,189.49 · low_3=1,133.83 low_3 > low_2 > low_1 required_pivots=3
FAIL
Full MA alignment
sma50=1,304.5331 · sma150=1,355.4513 · sma200=1,283.3101 sma50 > sma150 > sma200
PASS
RS20 vs SPY positive
SPY=0.1908 > min=0
PASS
RS20 vs QQQ positive
QQQ=0.1418 > min=0

PRE_BREAKOUT_V1 · scan run 415 · session 2026-10-02 · evaluated as of 2026-10-04T13:23:03.152588Z. Supporting evidence never changes the trigger; UNKNOWN is never collapsed into false.

Intelligence timeline

17 canonical of 17 items in window · duplicates collapsed

2026-10-0222:22 UTC
Impinj, Power Integrations, Kulicke and Soffa, Microchip Technology, and Monolithic Power Systems Shares Are Soaring, What You Need To Know
A number of stocks jumped in the morning session after weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data cooled Treasury yields, easing interest rate pressure.
YahooTier 3 · providerotherlow materialitynegativereported fact
2026-10-0216:49 UTC
2026 BayAreaCISO ORBIE Awards Recognize Bay Area’s Top Security Executives
Leading CISOs honored for leadership, enterprise security, and business impact at the BayAreaCISO ORBIE Awards on October 1, 2026, at the Santa Clara Marriott SANTA CLARA, Calif., Oct. 02, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The 2026 BayAreaCISO ORBIE Awards honored leading chief information security officers (CISOs) from Monolithic Power Systems, Synopsys Inc., TriNet, Dayforce, SLAC National Accelerator La
YahooTier 3 · providerotherlow materialitypositivereported factmention in body only
2026-09-3021:21 UTC
MONOLITHIC POWER SYSTEMS, INC.: 4 filed
SEC EDGARTier 1 · primaryinsiderlow materialityunknownfact
2026-09-3015:00 UTC
Monolithic Power (MPWR) is a Great Momentum Stock: Should You Buy?
Does Monolithic Power (MPWR) have what it takes to be a top stock pick for momentum investors? Let's find out.
YahooTier 3 · providerotherlow materialitypositivecommentary
2026-09-2821:50 UTC
MONOLITHIC POWER SYSTEMS, INC.: 144 filed
SEC EDGARTier 1 · primaryotherlow materialityunknownfact
2026-09-2821:35 UTC
GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS) and Monolithic Power (MPWR) Are Scaling Up. Can the Growth Last?
On September 9, GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. (NASDAQ:GFS) and Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:MPWR) announced a long-term manufacturing agreement to deploy MPS’s proprietary process technology to GF’s 300mm facility in Singapore. The partnership expands manufacturing capacity for critical power management solutions, targeting high-growth markets by early 2027. The agreement aligns with both compani
YahooTier 3 · providerotherlow materialitypositivecommentary
2026-09-1020:01 UTC
MONOLITHIC POWER SYSTEMS, INC.: 8-K filed (items 8.01,9.01)
SEC EDGARTier 1 · primaryothermedium materialityunknownfact
2026-09-0221:26 UTC
MONOLITHIC POWER SYSTEMS, INC.: 4 filed
SEC EDGARTier 1 · primaryinsiderlow materialityunknownfact
2026-08-2500:17 UTC
MONOLITHIC POWER SYSTEMS, INC.: 144 filed
SEC EDGARTier 1 · primaryotherlow materialityunknownfact+2 duplicate reports
hidden
11 provider-tagged items never name the company and are kept as context only.

canonical items of the last 10 sessions; analyst/industry/macro commentary and social sources excluded from the direction tally; gating uses tier 1-3 HIGH items within 3 (negative) / 2 (unknown direction) sessions

Catalysts and filings

Event	Date	In	Materiality	Source
Earnings (after the close)	2026-10-28	17 sessions	high	finnhub · Tier 3 · provider

Options activity

AVAILABLE_DELAYED · session 2026-10-01 · selected contracts, delayed

Session volume: 55
5D baseline: 68
20D baseline: 94
Volume / 20D: 0.59x
Call / put volume: 51 / 4
Call / put ratio: 12.75
Top-3 contract share: 76%
Top expiration: 2026-10-16 100%

Activity trend · last 29 sessions

Session	Volume	5D	20D	/ 20D
2026-09-25	49	223	88	0.56x
2026-09-28	113	227	85	1.33x
2026-09-29	40	193	88	0.46x
2026-09-30	86	150	90	0.96x
2026-10-01	55	68	94	0.59x

Call vs put volume

calls 93%puts 7%

Expiration concentration

2026-10-1655 · 100%

Contract concentration

O:MPWR261016C0136000022 · 40%
O:MPWR261016C0138000013 · 24%
O:MPWR261016C013400007 · 13%
O:MPWR261016C013700004 · 7%
O:MPWR261016C014000004 · 7%
remaining contracts24% outside top 3

Top contracts · session 2026-10-01

Contract	Type	Strike	Expiration	DTE	Volume	5D avg	20D avg	/ 20D	Return	Moneyness
O:MPWR261016C01360000	CALL	1,360	2026-10-16	15	22	14	insufficient history	insufficient history	0.0%	ATM (0.1%)
O:MPWR261016C01380000	CALL	1,380	2026-10-16	15	13	5	insufficient history	insufficient history	0.9%	OTM (-1.4%)
O:MPWR261016C01340000	CALL	1,340	2026-10-16	15	7	6	insufficient history	insufficient history	12.4%	ITM (1.6%)
O:MPWR261016C01370000	CALL	1,370	2026-10-16	15	4	3	insufficient history	insufficient history	-8.8%	OTM (-0.7%)
O:MPWR261016C01400000	CALL	1,400	2026-10-16	15	4	4	insufficient history	insufficient history	-9.7%	OTM (-2.8%)
O:MPWR261016P01320000	PUT	1,320	2026-10-16	15	2	7	insufficient history	insufficient history	1.8%	OTM (3.1%)
O:MPWR261016P01340000	PUT	1,340	2026-10-16	15	2	insufficient history	insufficient history	insufficient history	1.8%	OTM (1.6%)
O:MPWR261016C01330000	CALL	1,330	2026-10-16	15	1	3	insufficient history	insufficient history	0.0%	ITM (2.3%)

OPTIONS_SELECTION_M9_V1 selected contracts only · provider capability DELAYED · delayed · Top 15 selected contracts by session volume; 5D/20D averages use strictly prior sessions (M10), INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY is shown, never zero.

M13 observations for this session

Technical setup present (PRE_BREAKOUT_V1): FALSE
Technical and options context share a session: FALSE
Activity above its own 20-session baseline: FALSE
Activity below its own 20-session baseline: TRUE
Recent 5-session baseline above 20-session baseline: FALSE
Recent 5-session baseline below 20-session baseline: TRUE
Volume concentrated in top 3 contracts: TRUE
Volume concentrated in one expiration: TRUE
Calls carry most session volume: TRUE
Puts carry most session volume: FALSE
Call and put volume roughly balanced: FALSE
Enrichment data (snapshot/OI/IV/Greeks) available: FALSE
Enrichment data unavailable: TRUE
Real flow data unavailable: TRUE
Flow events present in replay window: NOT_EVALUABLE

Flow

Flow events—

Clusters—

Sweep candidates—

Block candidates—

Aggressor candidates—

Premium coverage—

Flow engine is ready. Trades and Quotes are not available with the current provider capabilities; this area populates automatically from the same M11 engine when real persisted facts exist. Synthetic fixture flow is never shown.

Evidence alerts

4 · ALERT_POLICY_V1

Category	Alert	Previous	Current	Sessions	Workflow
Disappeared	Technical setup disappeared	yes	no	2026-10-01 → 2026-10-02	New
Fading	Options activity vs 20D baseline fell	0.96	0.59	2026-09-30 → 2026-10-01	New
Changed	Top-3 contract concentration increased	0.63	0.76	2026-09-30 → 2026-10-01	New
Changed	Call / put volume mix changed	0.64	0.93	2026-09-30 → 2026-10-01	New

Decision trace

PRE_BREAKOUT_SWING_V1_1 · generated 2026-10-04 16:59 UTC · strategy 073b221a9cd0…

setup_eligiblePASSPRE_BREAKOUT on 2026-10-01; close above its resistance 1387.99 on 2026-10-02
trigger_statePASSTRIGGERED but EXTENDED: the close is beyond the entry zone or the EMA20 extension limit; entry only on a retracement into the zoneclose=1439.73 · entry_zone_high=1415.35 · extension_atr=2.31 | threshold breakout_max_extension_atr=2
data_freshnessPASS0 completed session(s) behind the calendarsessions_behind=0 | threshold max_sessions_behind=1
price_gatePASSclose 1439.73 at or above the 10 floorclose=1439.73 | threshold min_price=10
market_cap_gatePASSmarket cap 66.88B (finnhub, 2026-10-02)market_cap_usd=66882149373.71 | threshold min_market_cap_usd=1000000000
liquidity_gatePASSADV20 937.0M (STRONG_LIQUIDITY)adv_dollar=937040434.76 · strong_liquidity=true | threshold min_adv_dollar=25000000, strong_adv_dollar=50000000
sector_gatePASSsector Technology (finnhub_industry)
market_regime_gatePASSregime RISK_ONregime=RISK_ON · risk_multiplier=1
event_risk_gatePASSearnings in 17 sessions (2026-10-28)earnings_sessions_away=17 | threshold earnings_block_sessions=5
news_gatePASSnews context MIXED
chase_gateFAILclose is 2.31 ATR above EMA20 (max 2)extension_atr=2.31 | threshold breakout_max_extension_atr=2
risk_rewardFAILreward/risk to target 1 is 1.67 (below minimum)reward_risk_1=1.67 · reward_risk_2=3 | threshold min_reward_risk_1=2
portfolio_gateFAIL0 shares: one 1-share increment exceeds the max position value of this portfolio (POSITION_TOO_LARGE_FOR_PROFILE)binding_constraint=MAX_POSITION_VALUE · size_status=POSITION_TOO_LARGE_FOR_PROFILE · share_increment=1
data_qualityPASScurrent session data, valid technical snapshot, trigger and ATR; critical facts known
finalPASSWAIT (blocked by CHASE_EXTENDED, REWARD_RISK, PORTFOLIO_LIMIT; primary CHASE_EXTENDED)

Snapshot history: 2026-10-02 WAIT · 2026-10-01 BUY_ON_TRIGGER · 2026-09-30 BUY_ON_TRIGGER

Actions are generated from the configured trading strategy and current available market/intelligence data. They are not guarantees of future performance.