EXPD

Industrials · Logistics & Transportation

192.47

+2.52% · 2026-10-02

Wait

pending buy on trigger

reward/risk

Trade priority: #18 · 62

Data coverage: 100%

Setup: no setup · 2026-10-02

News: positive

Next catalyst: Earnings in 21 sessions

Trade plan

PRE_BREAKOUT_SWING_V1_1 · valid until close of 2026-10-05, a material event, or strategy invalidation · shared by every portfolio profile

Action: WAITblocked: reward/risk
Trigger: 191.33retracement to breakout level · close 0.6% above the retracement limit
Entry zone: 189.34–191.33reference 191.33
Initial stop: 183.923.9% · risk 7.41/sh
Target 1: 201.31+5.2% · R:R 1.35 (below minimum)
Target 2: 209.29+9.4% · R:R 2.42
Risk per share: 7.41strategy-owned; the portfolio panel sizes it per profile
Invalidation: 185.35a close below 1 ATR under the level invalidates the setup before entry

Level 189.34 (resistance of the PRE_BREAKOUT on 2026-10-01); ATR14 3.99 on 2026-10-02. Stop: 0.1 ATR below the latest confirmed pivot low 184.32 (within 1.5 ATR of the level). Targets: ATR projections 3 / 5 ATR above the level. R:R quality below minimum to T1 (hard minimum 2.0; 3R would be 213.56, T2 supports 2.42R). Targets are structural and are never moved to reach an R multiple.

Record the fill after you enter: add position. The strategy then manages the stop, targets and the next action.

Your portfolio · San

profile-specific: quantity, risk budget, exposure, cash impact

Profile: Sanequity 2,000.00 USD · whole shares
Current holding: noneno open position in this profile
Recommended quantity: 1 sh191.33 · 9.6% of portfolio · bound by risk budget
Risk budget: 10.000.5% of 2,000.00 · planned risk 7.41
Portfolio risk: 0.00 openremaining 40.00 → 32.59 after
Exposure: 0 / 3 positionsIndustrials: 0 / 2 · 0.00 of 1,000.00 cap
Cash impact: 2,000.00 → 1,808.67derived from the ledger
Eligibility: WAITsame as the strategy view

Entry, stop, targets and R:R are strategy-owned and identical for every profile; only this portfolio's quantity, risk, exposure and cash differ. Manage profiles · record a fill

Quality gates

hard entry gates of the strategy · PASS / FAIL / UNKNOWN

Gate	Verdict	Detail
Data freshness	PASS	0 completed session(s) behind the calendar
Price	PASS	close 192.47 at or above the 10 floor
Market cap	PASS	market cap 24.40B (finnhub, 2026-10-02)
Liquidity	PASS	ADV20 203.3M (STRONG_LIQUIDITY)
Sector	PASS	sector Industrials (finnhub_industry)
Regime	PASS	regime RISK_ON
Earnings	PASS	earnings in 21 sessions (2026-11-03)
News / event risk	PASS	news context POSITIVE
Chase protection	PASS	1.04 ATR above EMA20, session move 1.19 ATR
R:R	FAIL	reward/risk to target 1 is 1.35 (below minimum) · reward/risk
Portfolio capacity	PASS	1 shares (191), bound by risk budget
Data quality	PASS	current session data, valid technical snapshot, trigger and ATR; critical facts known

Primary blocker: reward/risk

Why this action

Technical

breakout on 2026-10-02 is extended; buy only on a retracement into 189.34-191.33
reward/risk 1.35 to target 1 is below the 2 minimum; the target is structural and is not moved
RS20 vs SPY 3.3%, vs QQQ -1.6%

Options

volume 0.14× the 20D baseline (activity_fading) · selected contracts only, delayed

News and events

news context positive (18 canonical items in window)
earnings 2026-11-03 (21 sessions, finnhub); event risk low
other · low · positive: Expeditors International of Washington Seen Benefiting From Stronger Ocean Rates, Airfreig
other · low · positive: Expeditors' Prospects Lifted by Dividends & Efficiency Initiatives
other · low · unknown: Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) Discusses Denied Party Screening: Prep
analyst · low · positive: Baird Maintains Neutral on Expeditors International, Raises Price Target to $200

Market and risk

regime RISK ON: SPY: trend UP, volatility NORMAL; QQQ: trend UP, volatility NORMAL
gate reward/risk blocks a new entry

Chart

252 sessions · EMA20 / SMA50 / SMA150 / SMA200 default · strategy levels drawn when a plan exists

2026-10-02O 190.47H 193.32L 190.00C 192.47 +2.52%Vol 1,552,388RVOL20 1.50SMA50 184.88SMA150 165.17SMA200 162.72EMA20 188.32RSI14 58.0MACD 0.736 / 1.053 / -0.318ATR14 3.99RS20 SPY 3.3% · QQQ -1.6%

Indicator history is derived from the stored bars with the accepted M3 functions (WORKSTATION_SERIES_V1); the scanner’s persisted values remain authoritative. Reconciliation at the scan session: 8 match.

Trade priority

operational attention ranking, not a forecast

Rank #18 · priority 62 / 100 · coverage 100%

technical readiness23/30
structure quality6/10
relative strength8/15
participation4/10
risk reward3/15
news context10/10
event risk5/5
urgency3/5

operational attention priority not a return forecast. Missing inputs lower coverage, never the score.

Setup evidence · PRE_BREAKOUT_V1

Setup state: NO_SETUP
Resistance: 189.34
Distance: -1.65%
Close: 192.47
SMA50: 184.88
SMA150 / SMA200: 165.17 / 162.72
RSI14: 58
EMA20 extension: 1.04 ATR
RS20 vs SPY: +3.3%
RS20 vs QQQ: -1.6%

Hard requirements · 7/8 passed

PASS
Confirmed resistance
resistance=189.3383 exists eligible=true
FAIL
Distance to resistance
distance_pct=-1.6541 · resistance=189.3383 · close=192.47 inclusive_between min=0 · max=3
PASS
Close above SMA50
close=192.47 · sma50=184.8782 > right_operand=sma50
PASS
SMA150 ≥ SMA200
sma150=165.1689 · sma200=162.7191 >= right_operand=sma200
PASS
RSI14 band
rsi14=57.9504 inclusive_between min=50 · max=70
PASS
EMA20 extension (ATR)
extension_atr=1.0405 · close=192.47 · ema20=188.318 · atr14=3.9902 <= max=1.5
PASS
RS20 vs SPY or QQQ
SPY=0.0331 · QQQ=-0.0159 OR > SPY=0 · QQQ=0
PASS
Resistance quality
distinct_touches=2 policy_and_minimum_touches min=2

Supporting evidence · 3/6 passed

PASS
ATR compression
current_atr_pct=0.0207 · median_previous_60_atr_pct=0.021 · ratio=0.9865 < right_operand=median_previous_60_atr_pct
FAIL
Volume contraction
recent_volume=1,135,657.6747 · baseline_volume=998,701.4056 · ratio=1.1371 < max=0.85
FAIL
Higher lows
low_1=185 · low_2=183.36 · low_3=184.32 low_3 > low_2 > low_1 required_pivots=3
PASS
Full MA alignment
sma50=184.8782 · sma150=165.1689 · sma200=162.7191 sma50 > sma150 > sma200
PASS
RS20 vs SPY positive
SPY=0.0331 > min=0
FAIL
RS20 vs QQQ positive
QQQ=-0.0159 > min=0

PRE_BREAKOUT_V1 · scan run 412 · session 2026-10-02 · evaluated as of 2026-10-04T13:22:43.415154Z. Supporting evidence never changes the trigger; UNKNOWN is never collapsed into false.

Intelligence timeline

18 canonical of 19 items in window · duplicates collapsed

2026-10-0215:21 UTC
Expeditors International of Washington Seen Benefiting From Stronger Ocean Rates, Airfreight Growth, UBS Says
Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) is benefiting from stronger ocean rates and continued
YahooTier 3 · providerotherlow materialitypositivereported fact
2026-10-0212:30 UTC
Expeditors' Prospects Lifted by Dividends & Efficiency Initiatives
EXPD benefits from resilient airfreight demand, rising customs activity, efficiency gains and robust shareholder returns.
YahooTier 3 · providerotherlow materialitypositivereported fact
2026-10-0119:00 UTC
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) Discusses Denied Party Screening: Preparing for What Comes Next Prepared Remarks Transcript
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) Discusses Denied Party Screening: Preparing for What Comes Next October 1, 2026 2:00 PM EDTCompany...
SeekingAlphaTier 3 · providerotherlow materialityunknowncommentary
2026-10-0108:07 UTC
Baird Maintains Neutral on Expeditors International, Raises Price Target to $200
Baird analyst Daniel Moore maintains Expeditors International (NYSE:EXPD) with a Neutral and raises the price target from $190 to $200.
BenzingaTier 3 · provideranalystlow materialitypositivecommentary+1 duplicate report
2026-09-3022:09 UTC
4% Overvalued? Expeditors International Of Washington (EXPD) On Leadership Change
Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) is back in focus after announcing that Blake Bell will move into the Senior Vice President, Professional Services role effective October 1, 2026. The company stated that this change is intended to reshape leadership around its professional services ambitions. Recent trading has cooled a little, with the 1-day share price return down 1.87% and the 7-day
YahooTier 3 · providerotherlow materialityunknowncommentary
2026-09-3008:09 UTC
This Ciena Analyst Begins Coverage On A Bullish Note; Here Are Top 5 Initiations For Wednesday
Analysts initiated coverage: Buy on FORM ($200), NUVB ($12); Outperform on CIEN ($440); Neutral on EXPD ($180); Equal-Weight on SFD ($22).
BenzingaTier 3 · provideranalystlow materialityneutralcommentarymention in body only
2026-09-3005:26 UTC
BNP Paribas Initiates Coverage On Expeditors International with Neutral Rating, Announces Price Target of $180
BNP Paribas analyst Hugo Watkins initiates coverage on Expeditors International (NYSE:EXPD) with a Neutral rating and announces Price Target of $180.
BenzingaTier 3 · provideranalystlow materialityneutralcommentary
2026-09-2908:30 UTC
Barclays Maintains Underweight on Expeditors International, Raises Price Target to $165
Barclays analyst Brandon Oglenski maintains Expeditors International (NYSE:EXPD) with a Underweight and raises the price target from $160 to $165.
BenzingaTier 3 · provideranalystlow materialitypositivecommentary
2026-09-2905:35 UTC
Zacks.com featured highlights include CNXN, ECG, GRDN, EXPD and PBF
DuPont analysis highlights CNXN, ECG, GRDN, EXPD and PBF, with strong earnings surprises supporting the screen's stock picks.
YahooTier 3 · providerotherlow materialitypositivecommentary
2026-09-2811:52 UTC
Bet on Winning DuPont Analysis & Pick 5 Top Stocks
Do you have more faith in DuPont analysis than simple ROE calculation? Tap CNXN, ECG, GRDN, EXPD and PBF.
YahooTier 3 · providerotherlow materialitypositivereported factmention in body only
2026-09-1615:00 UTC
EXPEDITORS INTERNATIONAL OF WASHINGTON INC: 8-K filed (items 5.02)
SEC EDGARTier 1 · primarymanagementmedium materialityunknownfact
2026-08-2020:29 UTC
EXPEDITORS INTERNATIONAL OF WASHINGTON INC: 4 filed
SEC EDGARTier 1 · primaryinsiderlow materialityunknownfact+1 duplicate report
hidden
8 provider-tagged items never name the company and are kept as context only.

canonical items of the last 10 sessions; analyst/industry/macro commentary and social sources excluded from the direction tally; gating uses tier 1-3 HIGH items within 3 (negative) / 2 (unknown direction) sessions

Catalysts and filings

Event	Date	In	Materiality	Source
Earnings	2026-11-03	21 sessions	high	finnhub · Tier 3 · provider

Options activity

AVAILABLE_DELAYED · session 2026-10-01 · selected contracts, delayed

Session volume: 9
5D baseline: 24
20D baseline: 65
Volume / 20D: 0.14x
Call / put volume: 9 / 0
Call / put ratio: zero_baseline
Top-3 contract share: 100%
Top expiration: 2026-10-16 100%

Activity trend · last 23 sessions

Session	Volume	5D	20D	/ 20D
2026-09-25	6	187	—	insufficient history
2026-09-28	3	56	—	insufficient history
2026-09-29	25	53	66	0.38x
2026-09-30	2	47	65	0.03x
2026-10-01	9	24	65	0.14x

Call vs put volume

calls 100%puts 0%

Expiration concentration

2026-10-169 · 100%

Contract concentration

O:EXPD261016C001950004 · 44%
O:EXPD261016C002000004 · 44%
O:EXPD261016C002100001 · 11%

Top contracts · session 2026-10-01

Contract	Type	Strike	Expiration	DTE	Volume	5D avg	20D avg	/ 20D	Return	Moneyness
O:EXPD261016C00195000	CALL	195	2026-10-16	15	4	24	insufficient history	insufficient history	-16.0%	OTM (-3.7%)
O:EXPD261016C00200000	CALL	200	2026-10-16	15	4	3	insufficient history	insufficient history	2.2%	OTM (-6.1%)
O:EXPD261016C00210000	CALL	210	2026-10-16	15	1	insufficient history	insufficient history	insufficient history	0.0%	OTM (-10.6%)

OPTIONS_SELECTION_M9_V1 selected contracts only · provider capability DELAYED · delayed · Top 15 selected contracts by session volume; 5D/20D averages use strictly prior sessions (M10), INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY is shown, never zero.

M13 observations for this session

Technical setup present (PRE_BREAKOUT_V1): FALSE
Technical and options context share a session: FALSE
Activity above its own 20-session baseline: FALSE
Activity below its own 20-session baseline: TRUE
Recent 5-session baseline above 20-session baseline: FALSE
Recent 5-session baseline below 20-session baseline: TRUE
Volume concentrated in top 3 contracts: TRUE
Volume concentrated in one expiration: TRUE
Calls carry most session volume: TRUE
Puts carry most session volume: FALSE
Call and put volume roughly balanced: FALSE
Enrichment data (snapshot/OI/IV/Greeks) available: FALSE
Enrichment data unavailable: TRUE
Real flow data unavailable: TRUE
Flow events present in replay window: NOT_EVALUABLE

Flow

Flow events—

Clusters—

Sweep candidates—

Block candidates—

Aggressor candidates—

Premium coverage—

Flow engine is ready. Trades and Quotes are not available with the current provider capabilities; this area populates automatically from the same M11 engine when real persisted facts exist. Synthetic fixture flow is never shown.

Evidence alerts

2 · ALERT_POLICY_V1

Category	Alert	Previous	Current	Sessions	Workflow	Actions
Disappeared	Technical setup disappeared	yes	no	2026-10-01 → 2026-10-02	New
Changed	Distance to resistance narrowed	0.84	-1.65	2026-10-01 → 2026-10-02	New

Decision trace

PRE_BREAKOUT_SWING_V1_1 · generated 2026-10-04 16:59 UTC · strategy 073b221a9cd0…

setup_eligiblePASSPRE_BREAKOUT on 2026-10-01; close above its resistance 189.34 on 2026-10-02
trigger_statePASSTRIGGERED but EXTENDED: the close is beyond the entry zone or the EMA20 extension limit; entry only on a retracement into the zoneclose=192.47 · entry_zone_high=191.33 · extension_atr=1.04 | threshold breakout_max_extension_atr=2
data_freshnessPASS0 completed session(s) behind the calendarsessions_behind=0 | threshold max_sessions_behind=1
price_gatePASSclose 192.47 at or above the 10 floorclose=192.47 | threshold min_price=10
market_cap_gatePASSmarket cap 24.40B (finnhub, 2026-10-02)market_cap_usd=24404441003.1 | threshold min_market_cap_usd=1000000000
liquidity_gatePASSADV20 203.3M (STRONG_LIQUIDITY)adv_dollar=203330002.61 · strong_liquidity=true | threshold min_adv_dollar=25000000, strong_adv_dollar=50000000
sector_gatePASSsector Industrials (finnhub_industry)
market_regime_gatePASSregime RISK_ONregime=RISK_ON · risk_multiplier=1
event_risk_gatePASSearnings in 21 sessions (2026-11-03)earnings_sessions_away=21 | threshold earnings_block_sessions=5
news_gatePASSnews context POSITIVE
chase_gatePASS1.04 ATR above EMA20, session move 1.19 ATRextension_atr=1.04 | threshold breakout_max_extension_atr=2
risk_rewardFAILreward/risk to target 1 is 1.35 (below minimum)reward_risk_1=1.35 · reward_risk_2=2.42 | threshold min_reward_risk_1=2
portfolio_gatePASS1 shares (191), bound by risk budgetshares=1 · risk_amount=7.41 · regime_multiplier=1 · share_increment=1
data_qualityPASScurrent session data, valid technical snapshot, trigger and ATR; critical facts known
finalPASSWAIT (blocked by REWARD_RISK; primary REWARD_RISK)

Snapshot history: 2026-10-02 WAIT · 2026-10-01 BUY_ON_TRIGGER

Actions are generated from the configured trading strategy and current available market/intelligence data. They are not guarantees of future performance.